Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Boz Loves The Waffle House

There was a time, say about 1984, that Tom Boswell was undoubtedly the best baseball writer in the country. If you pick up one of his old books, it's filled with cutting-edge observation and wonderful prose. He's still got the prose down, but his analysis? Yeesh. He loves stats, but he's also smart enough to manipulate them for his arguments (instead of forming arguments based on what the stats tell him). And he frequently changes his mind. There's nothing wrong with that. Being hard-headed certainly isn't admirable. But he comes out so forcefully in certain directions, when he changes his mind a few weeks later, he loses all credibility as an analyst, even if he wraps it all up in some pretty phrases.

Today's column is no exception. I know that writers don't write their own headlines, but today's is a humdinger: "Nats' Starting Pitching Could Be a Real Problem." Contrast that with the lede from February 22 (2 weeks ago!!?):
The surprise of camp so far is the growing realization that the mocked Washington rotation will be better than it was last year. In fact, the case for a better rotation in '07 is so obvious after a real analysis that it's actually closer to a promise than a prediction.

Now to be fair, most of Boz' column isn't about the pitching so much as how the team's struggles are going to impact leadership. But it's working from the basic assumption that the pitching is going to suck, which is far from the impression he had two weeks ago. I guess his out would be that he didn't say that this year's staff would be good, just that it wouldn't suck as much as Armas/Ortiz et al. But he wrapped it in so many hyperbolic adjectives and phrases, that you were left with the impression that the 07 rotation was going equal that of the '74 Orioles.

Let's Compare. New Boz. Old Boz

[T]heir starting rotation will probably ensure them a summer of biblical drubbings.

In fact, the case for a better rotation in '07 is so obvious after a real analysis that it's actually closer to a promise than a prediction.

[S]o many have looked so bad that, by process of elimination, the Nats may be forced to rush pitchers who should be in Class AAA

Think of it as a carousel. ... With two consecutive quality starts at Class AA Harrisburg and no felony arrests, you could be No. 3 man on the staff by next Thursday.

What if all of these guys were out of a job because they couldn't do the job? That hasn't been proved yet.

In fact, the case for a better rotation in '07 is so obvious after a real analysis that it's actually closer to a promise than a prediction. (That's so good, I had to use it twice!)

Seldom has a franchise needed a few decent pitchers -- just two or three, really -- to identify themselves.

[I]t hardly matters whom Washington sends to the mound in the first inning this year. As long as their arms are healthy enough to lift their morning coffee and they remember to cover first base, they'll be better than Tony Armas, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz and Pedro Astacio were last year.

Teh Nats are teh bestest team ever!1!!11 I love tehm lol!11

Teh Nats are teh bestest team ever!1!!11 I love tehm lol!11

OK, so I made the last two up. Sorta.

5 Comments:

  • Oh how I yearn for the day when Boz steps outside his comofort zone and puts some of this flip-floppery on a blog with open comments ... or even does an online chat.

    By Blogger JammingEcono, at 3/07/2007 10:47 AM  

  • Well, I have been down here in Viera watching this lifeless team since last week and I share the concerns of the Boz. I am beginning to wonder if the Nats are capable of winning 40 games this year. Beyond the pitching concerns, the defense is spotty and the base running is worse than ever. Anybody who thinks this isn't going to be an ugly season is delusional.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3/07/2007 11:26 AM  

  • I was rushing over here to post this very same thing.

    This is ridiculously poor journalism to me.

    By Blogger Abhinav, at 3/07/2007 12:10 PM  

  • Well, jammingecono, Boz has done an on-line chat for the past two season every Friday during baseball season and he usually goes longer than the allotted hour. He's a great writer - he and Dave Shenin two of the best you'll find anywhere.

    For the Nats and 2007, relax, go to RFK, have a beer, enjoy watching some of the good young players learn. They're going to lose a lot, but, look, we have a team, (remember the 33 seasons of nothing?), a gorgeous new park coming, and, unlike a lot of other clubs, a plan. The plan may or may not work, but at least they're sticking to it so far. The Nats remind me a lot of the way the Baltimore Ravens handled things, they built a strong team that can win from year to year -- unlike Danny and Joe's mess -- maybe the Nats plan will work. Let's relax, enjoy having baseball back again, and see what happens.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3/07/2007 5:14 PM  

  • Maybe Zimmerman can take a stab at the roatation every 5th day or so?

    Remember Dan Uggla, Nat fan- anything is possible.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3/07/2007 5:50 PM  

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