Wednesday, June 06, 2007

More Draft Lists

Yesterday, we looked at #6 picks through history. Today, I wanted to look at how the people in charge have done.

Let's start with the man at the top and work our way down. I'll try to list the players who had anything more than just a cup of coffee.

(I may have screwed up a year or two here or there. We're looking at the larger picture though)

  • Stan Kasten, Braves President, 1986-2003
    1986: 6 of 43 made the majors, led by Kent Mercker. Tim Salmon, Steve Finley and Ben McDonald didn't sign.
    1987: 5 of 50 made the majors, led by Mike Stanton and 1B Brian Hunter
    1988: 7 of 69 made the majors, led by Steve Avery, Mark "Hanging Slider" Wohlers and Tony Tarrasco
    1989: 5 of 62 made the majors, led by Ryan Klesko, Tyler Houston and Mike Mordecai. Catcher Todd Greene didn't sign.
    1990: 10 of 67 made the majors, led by Chipper Jones and Tony Graffanino
    1991: 5 of 62 made the majors, led by Jason Schmidt and Mike Kelly.
    1992: 9 of 50 made the majors, led by Jose Cruz, who didn't sign, and Mark Hendrickson
    1993: 8 of 55 made the majors, led by Jermaine Dye, Kevin Millwood, John Rocker and Micah Bowie.
    1994: 7 of 58 made the majors, led by Wes Helms and Mark Hendrickson (who didn't sign).
    1995: 6 of 56 made the majors, led by Kevin McGlinchey and Rob Bell.
    1996: 7 of 61 made the majors, led by Marcus Giles (53rd round), Jason Marquis, Mark DeRosa and Eric Munson.
    1997: 4 of 69 made the majors, led by Horacio Ramirez
    1998: 9 of 49 made the majors, led by Matt Beslisle and Ryan Langerhans. Dallas McPherson never signed.
    1999: 3 of 49 made the majors, led by nobody unless you count John Foster
    2000: 10 of 55 made the majors, led by Adam LaRoche, Kelly Johnson, Scott Thorman and Adam Wainright. Tony Gwynn, Jr. never signed.
    2001: 6 of 53 made the majors, led by Kyle Davies and Macay McBride.
    2002: 4 of 52 made the majors: Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann, Chuck James and Dan Meyer.
    2003: Jarrod Saltalamacchia appears to be the biggest name from the draft.

    Of note, the Braves did very well with lower round picks like Giles, Dye and LaRoche. Remember, too that because of their success, they always drafted at the end of each round.

  • Jim Bowden, GM Reds 1992-2003
    1992: 8 of 52 made it, led by Eric Owens and Chad Fox
    1993: 6 of 44 made it, led by Scott Sullivan, Paul Bako and Chad Allen (who didn't sign)
    1994: 6 of 47 made it, led by Aaron Boone and CJ Nitkowski. Kevin Grybowski never signed.
    1995: 10 of 43, made it, led by Jason LaRue, Brett Tomko and Ray King. Rob Mackowiak didn't sign.
    1996: 1 of 43, Buddy Caryle made it. Ouch.
    1997: 5 of 40 made it, led by Scott Williamson, Brandon Larson and Gookie Dawkins. (I just like the name)
    1998: 9 of 48 made it, led by Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, BJ Ryan and Todd Coffee. Terrmel Sledge and Lance Cormier didn't sign.
    1999: 3 of 50 made it, with only Ben Broussard having any sort of career.
    2000: 5 of 52 made it, led by Dustin Mosely.
    2001: 1 of 51: Jeremy Sowers
    2002: 1 of 51: Chris Denorfia, although Joey Votto has a chance.
    2003: 1 of 50: Ryan Wagner

    Ouch. I know old Marge didn't like the scouts, but that's a terrible record outside of the 1998 draft.

  • Mike Rizzo, Director of AZ Scouting, 2000-2005
    2000: 7 of 49 made the majors, led by Brandon Webb. Ian Kinsler didn't sign.
    2001: 7 of 50 made it, led by Chad Tracy, Dan Uggla, Brandon Medders and Scott Hairston.
    2002: 3 of 50 made it: Chris Snyder, Lance Cormier and Dustin Nippert
    2003: 2 of 51: Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin
    2004: 2 of 50: Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds. Also took Garret Mock.
    2005: Justin Upton, Micah Owings

    There's a bunch of solid guys there, definitely a solid core of a team. And there's still time for some of the guys from the latter drafts to emerge.

  • Dana Brown, Nats Director of Scouting, 2002-present
    2002: 3 of 50: Darrel Rasner, Mike O'Connor, Jay Bergmann. Others: Clint Everts (first round), Larry Broadway (third)
    2003: 3 of 50: Chad Cordero, Kory Casto, Jerry Owens. Others: Daryle Thompson (8th), Josh Whitsell (6th)
    2004: 2 of 50: Bill Bray, Brett Campbell. Others: Ian Desmond, Collin Balester
    2005: 1: Ryan Zimmerman. Others: Justin Maxwell, ummm...
    2006: Chris Marrero et al.

    Not a very good track record, but the problems with resources are well known. He did well selecting relievers, but 90% of scouting directors could probably do that; it's just that they're shooting for players with higher upside. That's not to diminish what he did, because he did great in the context of what he had to work with. We just need to see that he's up to the full challenge.

  • No, I don't know what conclusions you can draw from this. And I usually hate analysis by chart. The two people who did the worst (Bowden and Brown) are the ones who had the fewest resources to work with. The draft, in many cases, is a crapshoot, but with quality people in charge and with steady resources, they should be able to tilt the odds slightly in their favor -- or at least that's what my copy of "The PLAN!" tells me.

    • Depending on how you look at it, 1992 should or shouldn't count for Bowden on this chart. He wasn't hired as GM until October 1992, but he was Cincy's director of player development during the '92 season.

      Not that it really matters; that doesn't add or detract from your point, of course . . .

      By Anonymous Basil, at 6/06/2007 12:03 PM  

    • You missed a key one: Rizzo '03 - Matt Chico

      By Anonymous Tito, at 6/06/2007 1:35 PM  

    • it is hard to judge right now whether Dana Brown had successful drafts or not. it's too soon to tell (should get a better idea in the next couple of years).

      just for fun, I thought I'd see how Billy Beane in Oakland did with his drafts. from 1998-present, he drafted 371 players, with 37 appearing in the major leagues. that's almost 10% of all picks, which is just about equal, percentage wise, to Jim Bowden (56 of 571). granted, the quality of players Beane selected are considerably better than Bowden's. of course, it didn't hurt that in 2001 and 2002, the A's had 10 first round/sandwich picks (7 of which are MLB players)!

      By Anonymous e, at 6/06/2007 4:12 PM  

    • Chris, you do amazing stuff.

      Question: Among all the choices listed, where are the starting pitchers? I fear that unless there's a Smoltz or Maddux already hidden in the lower tiers of the organization, the only way to get four or five major league starters for the Nats in my lifetime is to trade/pay for them.

      However, that approach seems anathema to Lerner/Kasten/Bowden.

      Another point: On one of Barry's blog entries, someone commented on the radio/tv coverage of the Nats, and the possibilities for building up fan interest in Virginia. Where I live, about 90 miles from DC, WTWP fades out at about 9 p.m. due to MW propagation effects, and the FM outlet is off again, on again at this distance--using pretty good, not state of the art, radios and antennas on this end.

      By Anonymous JohnR (VA), at 6/07/2007 7:25 AM  

    • I did a much more cursory look at Bowden's record -- concentrating on his first round picks with the Reds -- and was struck by how terrible they in particular were. The only two names that jumped out at me were Kearns and Wagner. Obviously he did well with Zimmerman and apparently Marrero, but ...

      By Anonymous Simon Oliver Lockwood, at 6/07/2007 8:17 AM  

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