Sunday, June 03, 2007

Rank 'Em

Two months in, and it's probably a good idea to see how the team is doing as a whole.

Numbers in () are League average

  • Runs Scored: 209, 15/16 (244)
    Runs Scored, Home: 101, T14/15 (120)
    Runs Scored, Away: 108, 15/16 (122)

    They have a hard time scoring home or away, so it's not completely an illusion of the park. Remember, though, that a great number of our road games are in Shea and Dolphins Stadium, two fairly solid pitcher's parks. Factor that in, and this team isn't toooo far away from being an average NL offense.

  • Average: .243 16/16 (.257)
    On-Base: .313 15/16 (.327)
    Slugging: .357 16/16 (.402)
    OPS: .670 16/16 (.729)
    The basic building blocks of runs show why they can't score.

    The OBP is bad, but that's a function of their low batting average. If you subtract out the portion of OBP that's attributable to the batting average (.313-.243 = .070), it's the same as the league (.070).

    If you do the same with the slugging, that's where you see the problems are. (.357-.243 = .114) versus the league's .145. This is usually called Isolated Power because it's a measure of extra-base prowess. Essentially, it's taking singles out of the equation, and measuring how much extra-base power a team has. The Nats, as you can see, stink.

    The Nats, as you'd expect, are hurt by RFK. At home, they slug .344 and bat .242 for an ISO of .102. The Padres, who play in the best pitchers park, have a home ISO of .149.
  • Doubles: 96 12/16 (104)
    Triples: 10 T8/16 (11)
    Homers: 34 15/16 (49)
    Total Bases: 683, 15/16 (759)
    Total Bases, Road: 349, 15/16 (388)
    AB/HR: 56.2, 15/16 (40.7)

    The lack of power was one thing that OMG kept harping on all off-season, and rightly so. The team just doesn't hit homers, which isn't entirely the park's fault. They do, though, take advantage of the gaps, and their doubles and triples totals are respectable. (7 of their 10 triples have come at home)

  • Strikeouts: 389, 6/16 (364)
    Walks: 177, 10/16 (181)
    K/BB ratio: 2.2 (2.0)
    Intentional Walks: 12, 14/16 (17)

    This is one area where the Nats have regressed a lot from last year. Much of that, of course, is the loss of Nick Johnson, but even other players have regressed a bit. (Felipe Lopez' BB rate, for example, is about half of what it was last year)

    The team just doesn't control the strike zone.

    By and large strikeouts don't matter. They're really not any different than a groundout (with the added bonus of keeping you out of GIDPs). But, like all things, it can be taken too far. If you've got a weak-hitting infielder, you don't want him striking out 120 times. But if you're Adam Dunn or Jim Thome, by all means. In their case, there's a correlation between their strikeouts, how hard they swing (and how many homers they hit) and how often they walk.

    Needless to say, there's not an Adam Dunn or Jim Thome on the team. There are far too many Nats on this list who don't compensate for their wild swings with homers or walks (the latter the much-maligned Brad Wilkerson did in '05 when he walked 80+ times and had over 40 doubles)

  • One thought on BA with RISP. The team has 'improved' to .237. I wonder how much of that is that the guys getting on are the big bats in the middle of the lineup, leaving many of those big RISP opportunities to the crappy hitters at the bottom of our lineup?

    Austin Kearns leads the team with RISP ABs, but hits just .245. Brian Schneider is tied for second, and has hit an ungodly .159. Ron Belliard is a place or two below him, and has hit .189.

    Ryan Zimmerman led the world in RISP opportunities and RISP batting average last year, and there's nobody on the team dominating like he did last year. (He's up to .227 now)

    I dunno what that means, but I'm just throwing it out there...