A Draft List Which Probably Teaches Us Nothing
I was all set to do this by hand, but Baseball Reference, the greatest invention since instant pudding and the elevator, has done the heavy lifting. Here's a list of no great significance, yet it means the world to us:
Players drafted with the number 6 pick (31 of 42 made the majors) You can view their career stats off that link.
Hey there, GREAT pickin'! 7 total
Rocco Baldelli, 2000
Derek Jeter, 1992
Gary Sheffield, 1986
Barry Bonds, 1985
Andy Van Slyke, 1979
Terry Kennedy, 1977
John Mayberry, 1967
Useful Regulars, 9 total
Zach Greinke, 2002
Derek Lilliquist, 1987
Spike Owen, 1982
Kevin McReynolds, 1981
Darnell Coles, 1980
Ken Landreaux, 1976
Johnnie Lemaster, 1973
Mike Anderson, 1969
Tom Grieve, 1966
Cups of Coffee and Part-Timers, 13 total
Seth Greisenger, 1996
McCay Christenson, 1994
Steve Soderstrom, 1993
John Burke, 1991
Marc Newfield, 1990
Monty Fariss, 1988
Erik Pappas, 1984
Butch Benton, 1975
Butch Edge, 1974
Dan Thomas, 1972
Roy Thomas, 1971
Lee Richard, 1970
Rick James, 1965
Still "prospects" (4, 2 have made the majors)
Andrew Miller, 2006
Ricardo Romero, 2005
Jeremy Sowers, 2004
Ryan Harvey, 2003
Never Made It (# = drafted by Nats), 9 total
Josh Karp, 2001 #
Josh Girdley, 1999 #
Ryan Mills, 1998
Geoff Goetz, 1997
Jaime Jones, 1995
Paul Coleman, 1989
Jackie Davidson, 1983
Tito Nanni, 1978
Robert Weaver, 1968
All-in-all, teams have had pretty good success with that pick. If you take out the lean Montreal years, only 9 of the 40 players never made the majors, and 7 of them had long and useful careers, with 2 sure Hall of Famers. All together, 16 of the 42 players can be deemed successes, with the potential for four more depending on how the last few years drafts turn out.
In short, with a strong scouting department and a little bit of luck, the #6 pick isn't a bad place to be.
UPDATE: Proving that sub-standard minds sometimes come across random but similar thoughts, NFA does the same thing, but he includes breakdowns of pitcher versus hitter and college versus high school. Check it out.
Players drafted with the number 6 pick (31 of 42 made the majors) You can view their career stats off that link.
Hey there, GREAT pickin'! 7 total
Rocco Baldelli, 2000
Derek Jeter, 1992
Gary Sheffield, 1986
Barry Bonds, 1985
Andy Van Slyke, 1979
Terry Kennedy, 1977
John Mayberry, 1967
Useful Regulars, 9 total
Zach Greinke, 2002
Derek Lilliquist, 1987
Spike Owen, 1982
Kevin McReynolds, 1981
Darnell Coles, 1980
Ken Landreaux, 1976
Johnnie Lemaster, 1973
Mike Anderson, 1969
Tom Grieve, 1966
Cups of Coffee and Part-Timers, 13 total
Seth Greisenger, 1996
McCay Christenson, 1994
Steve Soderstrom, 1993
John Burke, 1991
Marc Newfield, 1990
Monty Fariss, 1988
Erik Pappas, 1984
Butch Benton, 1975
Butch Edge, 1974
Dan Thomas, 1972
Roy Thomas, 1971
Lee Richard, 1970
Rick James, 1965
Still "prospects" (4, 2 have made the majors)
Andrew Miller, 2006
Ricardo Romero, 2005
Jeremy Sowers, 2004
Ryan Harvey, 2003
Never Made It (# = drafted by Nats), 9 total
Josh Karp, 2001 #
Josh Girdley, 1999 #
Ryan Mills, 1998
Geoff Goetz, 1997
Jaime Jones, 1995
Paul Coleman, 1989
Jackie Davidson, 1983
Tito Nanni, 1978
Robert Weaver, 1968
All-in-all, teams have had pretty good success with that pick. If you take out the lean Montreal years, only 9 of the 40 players never made the majors, and 7 of them had long and useful careers, with 2 sure Hall of Famers. All together, 16 of the 42 players can be deemed successes, with the potential for four more depending on how the last few years drafts turn out.
In short, with a strong scouting department and a little bit of luck, the #6 pick isn't a bad place to be.
posted by Chris Needham at
10:24 AM
8 Comments:
I suppose that it should be noted that of recent picks -- the last 15 years or so -- a much lower percentage of the players made it.
Change in scouting philosophies? Just dumb luck?
By
Chris Needham, at 6/05/2007 10:26 AM
I think quite a bit of it is luck. There have only been 2 drafts since '95 where 9 of the top 10 picks made it to the bigs (although there is some time left for guys in the latest drafts). Coincidentally, the guys in the #6 spot were the ones that never made the bigs in both of those drafts... dun dun dun!
By
Anonymous, at 6/05/2007 11:18 AM
I think it is more than coincidence and a change in scouting philosophy. Scouts used to look for baseball players who showed success at whatever level. Now, scouts focus on numbers -- if a guy has + speed and a + arm, they can teach him to hit and field.
When Maddux was going for 300, they did a huge thing on him on WGN. The scout who pushed hard for his signing said that Maddux would never be drafted now because he didn't have the velocity that teams look for in pitchers or the unbelievable breaking stuff.
By
Natsfan74, at 6/05/2007 12:30 PM
The other big explanation for the recent change, is the explosion in signing bonuses over the last decade or so. Teams are much more cautious with their cash, and don't always take the top talent available with their pick. (as we may personally see on Thursday!)
By
Chris Needham, at 6/05/2007 12:41 PM
Rocco Baldelli shouldnt be considered in that top tier.
At the number 6 pick there will still be top talent available, but the real relevance is in the success rate of (early) picks by Bowden and Kasten.
By
Anonymous, at 6/05/2007 4:02 PM
USA Today Baseball Weekly ranks the Nats 26th in getting players drafted rounds 1-5 (since 1996) onto their roster.
Only the Yankees, Padres, Cleveland and Cincinnati rank lower.
By
WFY, at 6/06/2007 1:38 PM
Ok, I'm no expert, but who were the 5 guys picked BEFORE these guys?
Derek Jeter, 1992
Gary Sheffield, 1986
Barry Bonds, 1985
By
Anonymous, at 6/06/2007 1:48 PM
In '92, Jim Bowden's Reds took Chad Mottolla with the 5th pick.
1) Phil Nevin; 2) Paul Shuey; 3) BJ Wallace; 4) Jeffrey Hammonds.
Only Wallace never made it.
In 86: 1) Jeff King, 2) Greg Swindell, 3) Matt Williams, 4) Kevin Brown, 5) Kent Mercker
That's a solid class!
In 85: 1) BJ Surhoff, 2) Will Clark, 3)Bobby Witt, 4) Barry Larkin, 5) Kurt Brown.
Only Brown didn't make it. And Clark and Larkin both have arguments for the Hall of Fame. (Larkin will likely get in)
By
Chris Needham, at 6/06/2007 1:52 PM
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