The Way We Was: Week 2
This is rock bottom right? Like last year, it has to get better.
Look at the team's batting stats. Only Nick Johnson and Lastings Milledge are doing about what we expected. Guzman is exceeding expectations, but other than those three, every other batter is stinking up the park to some degree. One of these days, one or more of them is going to hit. Water, as the ol' cliche goes, finds its level, and right now we're at about 19,999 leagues.
But a win is a win, and while a 9th win in a row is certainly sweet, one ending a 9-game losing streak tastes pretty good too. (Just be prepared for the heartburn later)
STATS
Record: 1-5
Overall: 4-9
Offense: .216/ .315/ .330, 3.5 runs per game.
Most similar batter to the team's offense: '07 Omar Vizquel
Pitching: .295/ .366/ .518, 5.67 ERA
Most similar batter to the team's pitching: '07 Aaron Rowand
WHAT'S GOOD?
1) Cristian Guzman! (.400/.407/ .720) Had I not seen it with my own eyes, I would not have believed it possible. For, with a 3-ball count -- a rarity with Mr. Guzman itself -- the professional hitter took a fourth ball! And lo! He hath walked! Onward trudged the nimble batter taking his rightful base. And thus endeth the streak.
Finally, his batting average is lower than his on-base percentage, right where it should be. He had a bit of a power stroke this week, whipping the bat through the zone and driving it down the lines. Good for him. The more he turns on those pitches, the harder he'll hit the ball, instead of playing pepper as he has in the past. Just hit the ball hard, and good things happen!
2) Matt Chico! (8 innings, 1 run) Had I not seen it with my... Oh, I used that one already. What an outing! Just when it looked like Bowden was going to drive the ball-throwing lefty to Columbus, he whipped out this one, which when combined with Bergmann's chokejob, has stayed his execution.
Chico has now walked just 4 batters in about 20 innings, a dramatic improvement. I'm not completely sold that he has firm command of those pitches, but the accompanying 12 K isn't a terrible total. Better yet, he's just allowed 2 homers, which was his typical total every four innings last year.
Better control. Fewer homers. Passable K-rate. Might he **gasp** be turning a corner? The next few starts'll let us know!
3) Lastings Milledge! (.364/ .400/ .500) Ryan Church, who? OK, so he's been a bit shaky in the field from time to time, but I'm not sure that 2 weeks is enough time to get a strong reading one way or another. He's not Nook Logan with the glove, but neither is he with the bat!
He looked like he was too aggressive early in the season, but he's settled in to a more patient approach, and the results have come. What'd you think of his baserunning decision yesterday? Seems like that's a realllly smart play, if poorly executed. He didn't get a good jump off Chipper's throw, which cost him half a step, and the out. (even if the ump is blind!)
WHAT'S BAD?
1) Ryan Zimmerman (.136/ .231/ .182). Not all strikes are good strikes to hit dammit!
2) Austin Kearns' contact ability (.167/ .375/ .167). I love the batting eye, but, man, he's got less power than Tim Redding. What is it? Just a slump? Doesn't seem that way, cause I can't think of too many plays where he's been robbed (as there were early last year when he started similarly cold). I still have faith, but those stones sure look like they'd make good bread.
3) Jason Bergmann (14.14 ERA). I've obtained this secret training footage of Bergmann tossing between starts.
TOP PLAYS
(again measured by WPA, which is the % change to the team's chances of winning the game)
Best:
+23%, 4/13: Brian McCann's fly to right with the bases loaded in the 9th inning, which ended the game and the losing streak!
+16%, 4/10: Nick Johnson's booming double in the 9th inning, which put him (the tying run) in scoring position in what looked like a sure Nats comeback (HA!)
+11%, 4/10: Ron Belliard's homer down the line early in that game. (It's a rough week when your 3rd best play is a 3rd-inning solo homer!)
Worst:
-34%, 4/10: Paul LoDuca's game-ending GIDP, off the Marlins closer, and with the tying run on second.
-23%, 4/7: Hanley Ramirez' big three-run bomb off Tim Redding, in an inning he should've been out of, but wasn't, thanks to a hit by the opposing SP
-19%, 4/7: Amezaga's two-run double a few batters earlier. With first base open, Redding made a mistake, and the team paid.
AWARDS
MVP: Cristian Guzman
Cy Young: Matt Chico
LVP: Ryan Zimmerman
Joe Horgan: Rauch was ugly (save for yesterday's one out), but I can't overloook Bergmann's 14.14!
WHIPS AND DUCKS
4/7: Duck to Redding. Sure, 6 of the 7 were unearned, but you can't fault the last 4 or 5 entirely on the defense.
4/9: Duck to Bergmann. We can definitely fault all 7 of those to him!
4/10: Duck to Kearns. Two double plays!?
4/11: Duck to Rauch. Poor Matt Chico.
4/12: Duck to Lannan. The whole team slept walked, but Lannan put them to sleep after that first inning.
4/13: Whip to Milledge! Finally!
WHAT'S AHEAD?
Three in New York (BOOOO!) and three in Florida. At this point, I'll be happy if their train doesn't derail. Moral victories. Take 'em where you can get 'em.
Look at the team's batting stats. Only Nick Johnson and Lastings Milledge are doing about what we expected. Guzman is exceeding expectations, but other than those three, every other batter is stinking up the park to some degree. One of these days, one or more of them is going to hit. Water, as the ol' cliche goes, finds its level, and right now we're at about 19,999 leagues.
But a win is a win, and while a 9th win in a row is certainly sweet, one ending a 9-game losing streak tastes pretty good too. (Just be prepared for the heartburn later)
Record: 1-5
Overall: 4-9
Offense: .216/ .315/ .330, 3.5 runs per game.
Most similar batter to the team's offense: '07 Omar Vizquel
Pitching: .295/ .366/ .518, 5.67 ERA
Most similar batter to the team's pitching: '07 Aaron Rowand
1) Cristian Guzman! (.400/.407/ .720) Had I not seen it with my own eyes, I would not have believed it possible. For, with a 3-ball count -- a rarity with Mr. Guzman itself -- the professional hitter took a fourth ball! And lo! He hath walked! Onward trudged the nimble batter taking his rightful base. And thus endeth the streak.
Finally, his batting average is lower than his on-base percentage, right where it should be. He had a bit of a power stroke this week, whipping the bat through the zone and driving it down the lines. Good for him. The more he turns on those pitches, the harder he'll hit the ball, instead of playing pepper as he has in the past. Just hit the ball hard, and good things happen!
2) Matt Chico! (8 innings, 1 run) Had I not seen it with my... Oh, I used that one already. What an outing! Just when it looked like Bowden was going to drive the ball-throwing lefty to Columbus, he whipped out this one, which when combined with Bergmann's chokejob, has stayed his execution.
Chico has now walked just 4 batters in about 20 innings, a dramatic improvement. I'm not completely sold that he has firm command of those pitches, but the accompanying 12 K isn't a terrible total. Better yet, he's just allowed 2 homers, which was his typical total every four innings last year.
Better control. Fewer homers. Passable K-rate. Might he **gasp** be turning a corner? The next few starts'll let us know!
3) Lastings Milledge! (.364/ .400/ .500) Ryan Church, who? OK, so he's been a bit shaky in the field from time to time, but I'm not sure that 2 weeks is enough time to get a strong reading one way or another. He's not Nook Logan with the glove, but neither is he with the bat!
He looked like he was too aggressive early in the season, but he's settled in to a more patient approach, and the results have come. What'd you think of his baserunning decision yesterday? Seems like that's a realllly smart play, if poorly executed. He didn't get a good jump off Chipper's throw, which cost him half a step, and the out. (even if the ump is blind!)
1) Ryan Zimmerman (.136/ .231/ .182). Not all strikes are good strikes to hit dammit!
2) Austin Kearns' contact ability (.167/ .375/ .167). I love the batting eye, but, man, he's got less power than Tim Redding. What is it? Just a slump? Doesn't seem that way, cause I can't think of too many plays where he's been robbed (as there were early last year when he started similarly cold). I still have faith, but those stones sure look like they'd make good bread.
3) Jason Bergmann (14.14 ERA). I've obtained this secret training footage of Bergmann tossing between starts.
(again measured by WPA, which is the % change to the team's chances of winning the game)
Best:
+23%, 4/13: Brian McCann's fly to right with the bases loaded in the 9th inning, which ended the game and the losing streak!
+16%, 4/10: Nick Johnson's booming double in the 9th inning, which put him (the tying run) in scoring position in what looked like a sure Nats comeback (HA!)
+11%, 4/10: Ron Belliard's homer down the line early in that game. (It's a rough week when your 3rd best play is a 3rd-inning solo homer!)
Worst:
-34%, 4/10: Paul LoDuca's game-ending GIDP, off the Marlins closer, and with the tying run on second.
-23%, 4/7: Hanley Ramirez' big three-run bomb off Tim Redding, in an inning he should've been out of, but wasn't, thanks to a hit by the opposing SP
-19%, 4/7: Amezaga's two-run double a few batters earlier. With first base open, Redding made a mistake, and the team paid.
MVP: Cristian Guzman
Cy Young: Matt Chico
LVP: Ryan Zimmerman
Joe Horgan: Rauch was ugly (save for yesterday's one out), but I can't overloook Bergmann's 14.14!
4/7: Duck to Redding. Sure, 6 of the 7 were unearned, but you can't fault the last 4 or 5 entirely on the defense.
4/9: Duck to Bergmann. We can definitely fault all 7 of those to him!
4/10: Duck to Kearns. Two double plays!?
4/11: Duck to Rauch. Poor Matt Chico.
4/12: Duck to Lannan. The whole team slept walked, but Lannan put them to sleep after that first inning.
4/13: Whip to Milledge! Finally!
Three in New York (BOOOO!) and three in Florida. At this point, I'll be happy if their train doesn't derail. Moral victories. Take 'em where you can get 'em.
posted by Chris Needham at
7:36 AM
23 Comments:
They have already had a train derail on them, back in 2006.
By
WFY, at 4/14/2008 11:07 AM
Yes, it was a win, but God, how inept can hitting be?!! Three of the runs were “driven in” by walks. And one of those walks (Kearns, I think) should’ve been a strikeout. The umpire was really squeezing the strike zone.
Since it was his first day back (and I think he was rushed back too soon), I’ll cut Wily Mo Pena a break. But how bad can you play?!! He came up twice with the bases loaded. Once he grounded into a double play; the second time he struck out. He also struck out in his other two plate appearances and he dropped a fly ball to allow the Braves 4th run. I sure hope he gets better.
And while I’m ranting, all along I thought that once Pena came back, the Nats would have a legitimate number six hitter. So what does Manny do? He replaces Nick “The Stick” Johnson with Aaron Boone and bats Boone 8th. The result is the 3, 4, 5 and 6 hitters are Zimmerman, Kearns, Pena and (once again) LoDuca. I can’t stand it anymore!!!! Kearns should NEVER EVER be a clean-up hitter. Maybe tomorrow night in Florida, we’ll finally see Zimmerman, Johnson, Kearns and Pena in the middle of the order.
And how about the announcers after Milledge doubled in the bottom of the 8th? Zimmerman follows the double with a weak grounder to second moving Milledge to third base. Instead of criticizing Zimmerman for not attacking the ball with a runner in scoring position, Carpenter and Sutton fawned over him for unselfishly giving himself up so that Milledge could advance to third. Did Milledge score? Of course not; he was doubled up trying to score on another wimpy grounder that Kearns hit.
How long can hitting coach Lenny Harris last with the team so lacking at the plate? I’d like to see a hitting coach who will re-teach Zimmerman to pull the damn ball and get all of the hitters looking more aggressive at the plate. I am so tired of seeing guys take two grooved strikes before they finally get serious about hitting the ball. Unfortunately, it’s too late by then. Invariably they swing and miss at a breaking ball they can’t hit.
By
Anonymous, at 4/14/2008 11:31 AM
I don't think Milledge's mental error was trying to score from third - it was failing to stretch his hit into a triple. I saw the ball rolling to the wall and Lastings was just coasting into second.
By
Brick, at 4/14/2008 12:28 PM
Milledge has definitely made some mental errors here and there, but we need to be patient with him given his talent. At least he seems to be learning from the mistakes and was man enough to stand up in the locker room and apologize to his teammates for a less-than-100% effort on a cutoff throw a couple days ago.
Having been a life-long Expo fan, I must say... he reminds me A LOT of Marquis Grissom when he came up. I watched Grissom at Double A Jacksonville and then in the majors and I think they have a similar tool set... Grissom had more power than a lot of people remember. Grissom was a slightly better base stealer, but I believe Milledge will have slightly more power. It is nice to finally see some attitude and aggressiveness on this team.
By
Anonymous, at 4/14/2008 12:46 PM
In my opinion, the real problems from this lineup fall squarely on Zimmerman and Kearns' lack of production, in addition to Pena's injury. Johnson, Guzman and Milledge are all performing right about where they should, while expecting better performance out of Lo Duca and Belliard/Lopez is quite simply unrealistic. They are what they are and we knew that coming into this year.
Pena, of course, deserves a pass considering his injury isn't exactly his fault per se, and I'm actually slightly concerned that they rushed him back just to win a game (and he wasn't able to contribute at that, given his stage of rehab). Kearns has a long history of slow starts, although some of his current performance is rather suspect. Regardless, his OBP has still been around .380 so he's not a total dead weight. It's just that his slugging has been around .240, which is not what he's expected to produce at all.
The real goat, if you want to call him that, is Zimmerman, who, unlike Kearns (consistently cool early in the season) or Lo Duca and Belliard (not that great to begin with), has been performing abysmally. He hasn't been getting on base, he hasn't been hitting for power and he hasn't been hitting for average. And he's stuck in the #3 slot which is basically killing whatever chances we have to score runs off of Milledge's and Guzman's hits. Zimmerman needs to figure out what's going wrong and correct it fast.
In the meantime, though, Manny deserves some of the blame. It doesn't take a genius to understand who the productive hitters in this lineup are, and if the team is so concerned about winning that they're going to rush people back, then they quite frankly out to be dropping Zim in the lineup, replacing him with NJ. Keeping him in the #3 slot when he's performing that badly either shows that the team either isn't paying attention to Zim's performance, or that the decision is not being made based upon winning ball games, but rather for PR purposes. I know Zimmerman is good and all, and he certainly is the face of the franchise, but keeping him in his lineup slot purely to please the fans is the wrong way to go about it.
By
Michael Taylor, at 4/14/2008 1:03 PM
How about culprit instead of goat?
It's been only 13 games! What I don't want Manny to do is overreact. I am sure they are paying attention about Zim's slump, but the long-term is more important than the short-term. There is also a real chance of damaging his psyche. If this continues for much longer (1 week, 2 weeks?) then of course Acta needs to do something.
And I verily hate the productive out.
By
dan, at 4/14/2008 1:11 PM
Expos fan, I love the comparison to Grissom, very similar players from what I've seen out of Lastings so far. I'd give it through April before we drop Zim to 4. He'll be fine, let's give the offense some time with Pena back to full health.
By
Anonymous, at 4/14/2008 1:33 PM
Exops fan:
I'm another Expos fan, and the Grissom thing holds very true. Now all we need is Kearns to turn into Larry Walker!
You're right, Zimm shouldn't be dropped down but, it's not far off. You just can't have that avg. in the middle of the line-up for long. Right now, the thing holding me back would be that we don't have anything like a '3' hitter in the organisation. Not one.
By
Ben, at 4/14/2008 3:57 PM
Yes, Grissom indeed. I will hope for even more, but be very happy with that type of career.
LMAO... Kearns becoming Walker... oh what a dream to dream. Funny.
I disagree that we don't have a #3 hitter in the organization. I think Nick is a perfect #3 hitter. He is not a clean up hitter since he only has 18-25 HR potential. He is a .300ish average guy with high on base. I believe he is ideal for the 3 spot and is miscast in the cleanup role. Question then is who bats cleanup. I would rather see Zimmerman there (4th) than in the #3 spot. Kearns is certainly not a cleanup hitter.
By
National Expo, at 4/14/2008 4:32 PM
A lot of good posts here.
Michael, I agree completely with your analysis. Zimm's lack of production has hurt. badly. Kearn's level of play doesn't help either.
I must say I've been pretty pleased with Milledge. He's still young, and I expect him to make some stupid mistakes. It's all part of becoming a big league player. However, if he continues to commit the same mistakes, then there might be some cause for concern.
National Expo, I wholeheartedly agree. Nick Johnson would make an ideal #3. He gets on base as well as anyone, and still has a little pop in his bat.
Ideally, Zimm is best suited for the #5 spot, but since we don't exactly have too many options, I think he'd fit well into the #4 spot. He's got the best combination of power and ability to get on base.
Also, I don't see how moving Zimm to the 4 spot could be construed in any way as a confidence-killer. He's better suited, IMO, there than in the 3 spot. In fact, most would consider the cleanup spot as the most prized place in the line up.
If I were Manny, I'd set up my line up as follows:
Guz
Milledge
NJ
Zimm
Pena
Kearns
Lo Duca/Estrada
Belliard/FLop
By
Will, at 4/14/2008 5:01 PM
NationalExpo
I was being a little facetious about Kearns.
I'm just not sure that Johnson has the power to be the 3 hitter. But he may be the best imperfect solution that we have.
A move further down the line up may take a little pressure of Zimm until he gets back in his swing. Putting the whole franchises success on the shoulders of a 23 year might cause he to try too hard and jump all over imperfect pitches.
By
Ben, at 4/14/2008 5:04 PM
Ben, generally, the true "power hitter" spot is considered the clean up spot. If you're concerned with NJ's power not being sufficient in the 3 spot, then you certainly should be concerned with him batting 4th.
Take the Braves for example. Chipper Jones is a better hitter than Mark Teixeira, but Tex has better power. Jones hits 3rd, Tex hits 4th. The same goes for the Phillies with Utley and Howard.
By
Will, at 4/14/2008 5:40 PM
I don't think the guys are getting quite enough credit for yesterday. I thought they were making solid contact with the ball and even though a couple runs came on a walk, that's playing the game well, Billy Beane would have been psyched.
I agree that Zimm isn't looking like a viable 3 spot right now since Lastings and Guzman are both getting on base and then being stranded. That said, I think once Zimmerman starts hitting better he's a better guy where he is now than Nick Johnson is because of his power.
I have never been a huge fan of Austin Kearns and think they should have sent him off instead of Ryan Church last year, but Wily Mo clubs the ball when he hits it... which happens admittedly rarely. None the less he's a great guy to have in the 5 hole if you ask me.
I grew up in Vermont seeing the majority of my games at the Big O, so I'd love to see these guys shake their franchise reputation. In the end, I don't think it's ourline up that's going to hurt us (there's a lot of potential there), it's our pitching.
Just my 2 cents.
P.S. Situational or not, I still don't get why Manny Acta walked Tex to get pitch to a hotter hitting McCann when there were two outs (situational pitching or not).
By
Anonymous, at 4/14/2008 5:49 PM
I know this will probably get me laughed off the blog, but I can't shake the idea that Kearns should be batting lead-off on this team. I know he doesn't look the part, but he's proven he's not a power hitter, and his OBS this year is sitting at just a hair under .400. The last 3 years his OBS was .355, .381, and .351. Ok so those aren't prototypical lead-off numbers, but it beats the heck out of Guzman, who's at 328 now and has been under .311 in 6 out of 8 years in his career. I speed really so important in a lead-off man, if you 're only getting on 31% of the time anyway?
Then we'd have something like:
Kearns
Milledge
Zimmerman
Johnson
Pena
LoDuca
Guzman
Belliard
By
Steven Biel, at 4/15/2008 12:05 AM
Steven-
that's actually kind of similar to what F-Rob had the team doing in 2005 when Wilkerson was batting leadoff. He wasn't really a speed guy; more of an outfielder who had some pop at the plate, but was mostly a singles and doubles hitter.
The idea's not entirely crazy because if you can get an XBH, you don't need to steal, and therefore don't need to be especially fast.
By
Rob B, at 4/15/2008 8:54 AM
But Wilkerson struck out a lot! Ks are as bad as drunk driving.
By
ntr Bill Ladson, at 4/15/2008 8:56 AM
Have to see how Pena works out at the plate. I know one thing - his defensive prowess, or lack there of, Is going to cust us some runs.
Really though, can we drop Mackiawack and Harris...even when Dukes Comes back as a 4th outfielder, we would be better served to Maxwell as our 5th.
By
The Big C from DC, at 4/15/2008 12:44 PM
actually Maxwell is probably better playing every day at AAA. He, unlike Mackowiak/Harris actually has a future in the bigs, and still could improve.
By
Rob B, at 4/15/2008 1:37 PM
Frank Robinson was astute enough to hit Nick Johnson 3rd in 2005, when Nick had his best season (Guillen was cleanup).
By
National Expo, at 4/15/2008 3:26 PM
I'm watching the Mets' HD broadcast of the game tonight. Zimmerman comes up with the bases loaded. Keith Hernandez's comment: "Really you think of Nick Johnson as more of a three-hitter, but Manny Acta has it flipped."
Amen.
By
National Expo, at 4/15/2008 8:03 PM
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By
sexy, at 12/27/2008 3:33 AM
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By
pco, at 2/20/2009 7:10 AM
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