Reconsidering The Soriano Non-Trade

In most every season preview I've seen that describes the expected woeful performance of our fair team, there have been more shots lobbed at the Nationals' decision to not trade Alfonso Soriano last July. It's a decision that I defended at the time, but we've got some new information in the last week, buried in an excellent Dave Sheinin article.

At the time, there were lots of rumors, but nobody was every able to pin down who or what was offered. All the while, they mocked PT Bowden (who with his statements to the press was making an ass of himself), for asking for too much and having unreasonable demands.

The only serious offer which passed the smell test was the package that Will Carroll [insert your own joke] reported: Jason Kubel, a slugging outfielder who was coming off a knee injury that has turned him into a young DH, and Scott Baker, a solid starter prospect who could probably be a good 3/4.

It turns out that the team would later deny that that was actually offered. But even if it had, that's a so-so package, and choosing to keep Soriano is certainly a defensible choice, especially with the two draft picks they'd get when he walked at the end of the year.

When Nats 320 interviewed Stan Kasten a few months ago, they asked him about the Soriano trade, and he admitted that he overruled a deal that Bowden wanted to make:

"NOT A THING-- We would take today or YOU WOULD TAKE TODAY!. NOT A THING! That is better, than what we wound up getting. Now, why is that, its going to be a mystery to me. Because the truth is, we got better pitchers in our deals for Hernandez and even Marlon Anderson (Johny Nunez from the Dodgers) than for Soriano. THAT SHOCKS ME!! SHOCKS ME (POUNDING HIS DESK). Nevertheless, it is the truth."

"And, what I saw, coming down to the deadline, the last day, there was a determination to trade him (on the part of Washington's Baseball Think Tank), I was worried. We were about to trade him for NEXT TO NOTHING!! And that’s, when I had to step in, and say--NO!!. We are not going down that road. WE ARE NOT GOING TO DO STUPID THINGS!!."

So what was actually offered? We haven't heard a thing, til' that Sheinin piece. Buried inside it was something interesting:

One of the teams the Nationals spoke with extensively last summer regarding Soriano was the Minnesota Twins, according to industry sources. In return for Soriano, the Nationals asked for a package headed by one of the Twins' top pitching prospects, either left-hander Glen Perkins or right-hander Matt Garza -- rated the Twins' fourth- and seventh-best prospects in 2006 -- but the Twins' best offer was for right-hander Kevin Slowey, a control specialist who was not among the team's top 10 prospects in 2006.

The Nationals passed. Slowey, however, after an impressive 2006 season, has climbed to the Twins' third-best prospect in the 2007 Baseball America rankings and received consideration in the Twins' camp this spring for promotion to the majors.

"All these months later, and knowing everything I know now," Nationals President Stan Kasten said, with regard to the Soriano non-trade, "I'd still do the same thing."

Slowey looks like he's a solid prospect, dominating hitters at the lower levels. But he was a 22-year old A-ball pitcher at the deadline. While he's a solid prospect, many in that same peanut gallery would've slaughtered Bowden for such a paltry return.

It's likely they'd have chipped in another pseudo prospect or two, but Slowey as a centerpice? Meh.

If that was the best offer -- and that's really the only solid reporting we've had -- then I'm even more confident that the Nats made the right decision in holding on to him. The two extra draft picks the team picked up, especially in the draft-mastering hands of Mike Rizzo, give the Nats a pretty good chance of picking up the next Slowey.

Yes, the Nats did get screwed over a bit by the protection of the Cubs first rounder and the changes to the draft compensation system, which created seemingly hundreds of new sandwich picks, devaluing the second-rounder they received from the Cubs instead. But given what they knew at the time, they did right.