Accountability Stinks
From time to time, I make predictions. More often than not, I'm wrong. So let's see how wrong I was with a few.
Here were my AL standings. I got 3/4 playoff teams, missing on the Indians (who I liked...must've talked myself out of that one), though I screwed up the Yankees/Sox order. I was pretty close on most of the teams, missing wildly on the White Sox (who knew their offense would stink so badly?) and Seattle. I liked Texas a lot more than I should have, too. Oh well. I had ARod as MVP (good!), Halladay as Cy Young (meh) and Sox as AL Champ (we'll see!)
My NL predictions stunk. I had the Phillies and DBacks right. I have no idea why I picked the Cardinals in the central; I knew I didn't like them and had the Cubs in the ones I did for the contest at Prospectus. (At least I had them right there with the Cards on these predics). I had the Mets and Padres neck-and-neck for the Wild Card (good!), but I had the Rockies in last place. (terrible!) The records I predicted for most teams were pretty close, but I missed the order in a few cases (like in the East!). Oh well. Had I been in Vegas, I'd have won money on the Nats, at least!
I made a bunch of predictions heading into the second half, a number of them were low-hanging fruit.
1) Bergmann's ERA will be over 4. It was 5.60 and ended up at 4.45 overall. At the time it was 3.47 -- remember that?!
2) Dmitri won't be traded.
3) Zimmerman will get to 100 RBI. Ooops. close tho.
4) Ryan Church won't be a regular OFer by the time of the year. (There's one of those low-hanging fruit predics!)
5) Lopez will have a .340 OBP. Nope! .321 ain't even close.
6) Cordero won't get traded, but Rauch will. Oops. Didn't seem to be many Rauch rumors this year, either.
7) Chico will finish 6th in ROY voting. Who knows, but I doubt he'll get any votes.
8) Kearns will lead in second-half homers. Bing Bing Bing! He had 11 to Zimmerman's 10. I'll kindly not point out the people in that post's comments who called me an idiot for this one.
9) The team will score 350 runs. Is 347 close enough?
10) The Nats will finish 3 games behind the DRays for the #1 pick. Not even close.
11) Dmitri will finish the year at .320. Bingo!
12) This one starts "Alex Escobar, once activated." WRONG!
13) Zimmerman will be close to .280. Nope. He did hit .282 for the second half, but it wasn't nearly enough to bring his overall ave up.
14) The Nats will go 35-39 in the second half (how I rectified that, at the time, with #10, I dunno!). They went 37-37. Close enough!
So now that I've proven my general incompetence, let's try some playoff picks...
Cubs over DBacks
Phillies over Rockies
Cubs over Phillies
Yankees (this is a heart, not a brain pick!) over Indians
Sox over Angels
Sox over Yankees
Sox over Cubs.
Don't take those ones to the bank!
Here were my AL standings. I got 3/4 playoff teams, missing on the Indians (who I liked...must've talked myself out of that one), though I screwed up the Yankees/Sox order. I was pretty close on most of the teams, missing wildly on the White Sox (who knew their offense would stink so badly?) and Seattle. I liked Texas a lot more than I should have, too. Oh well. I had ARod as MVP (good!), Halladay as Cy Young (meh) and Sox as AL Champ (we'll see!)
My NL predictions stunk. I had the Phillies and DBacks right. I have no idea why I picked the Cardinals in the central; I knew I didn't like them and had the Cubs in the ones I did for the contest at Prospectus. (At least I had them right there with the Cards on these predics). I had the Mets and Padres neck-and-neck for the Wild Card (good!), but I had the Rockies in last place. (terrible!) The records I predicted for most teams were pretty close, but I missed the order in a few cases (like in the East!). Oh well. Had I been in Vegas, I'd have won money on the Nats, at least!
I made a bunch of predictions heading into the second half, a number of them were low-hanging fruit.
1) Bergmann's ERA will be over 4. It was 5.60 and ended up at 4.45 overall. At the time it was 3.47 -- remember that?!
2) Dmitri won't be traded.
3) Zimmerman will get to 100 RBI. Ooops. close tho.
4) Ryan Church won't be a regular OFer by the time of the year. (There's one of those low-hanging fruit predics!)
5) Lopez will have a .340 OBP. Nope! .321 ain't even close.
6) Cordero won't get traded, but Rauch will. Oops. Didn't seem to be many Rauch rumors this year, either.
7) Chico will finish 6th in ROY voting. Who knows, but I doubt he'll get any votes.
8) Kearns will lead in second-half homers. Bing Bing Bing! He had 11 to Zimmerman's 10. I'll kindly not point out the people in that post's comments who called me an idiot for this one.
9) The team will score 350 runs. Is 347 close enough?
10) The Nats will finish 3 games behind the DRays for the #1 pick. Not even close.
11) Dmitri will finish the year at .320. Bingo!
12) This one starts "Alex Escobar, once activated." WRONG!
13) Zimmerman will be close to .280. Nope. He did hit .282 for the second half, but it wasn't nearly enough to bring his overall ave up.
14) The Nats will go 35-39 in the second half (how I rectified that, at the time, with #10, I dunno!). They went 37-37. Close enough!
Cubs over DBacks
Phillies over Rockies
Cubs over Phillies
Yankees (this is a heart, not a brain pick!) over Indians
Sox over Angels
Sox over Yankees
Sox over Cubs.
Don't take those ones to the bank!
posted by Chris Needham at
9:36 AM
6 Comments:
You can't heart pick the Yanks over the Indians and then have them lose to the Red Sox!
Yanks all the way! This is "The (Second) One for the Middle Finger of the Right Hand! ((tm) - OMG)
By
Harper, at 10/03/2007 10:27 AM
LET'S GO TRIBE!!! F*** the Yankees!!!
By
DCPowerGator, at 10/03/2007 10:37 AM
oh, by the way, nice job on the midseason picks. what i hate about MSM (mainstream media) types is they make all these predictions and then never true them up with actual results.
congrats chris not only for making good picks but also for being accountable for all of them - good bad or otherwise!
By
DCPowerGator, at 10/03/2007 10:40 AM
I made three predictions regarding the Nats and was 2 for 3. I predicted the Nats would not win 60 games, wrong there. I predicted the Nats' attendance would drop below two million, right there. I predicted Zimmerman would not have a good seasn because of the absence of Nick Johnson batting behind him, right there. Zimmerman's batting average dropped by more than twenty points, his RBI total dropped from 110 to 91 and his error total increased by 50%. He did hit four more home runs than last year.
By
Anonymous, at 10/03/2007 10:49 AM
Great post!
I maintain that the weather guys should start each days broadcast with the words..."Yesterday, I said it would be _________, and today it was_________. Ok, now for tomorrow......."
Instead what all the people do is talk about what they think now.
Great job Chris!
By
Ray Firsching, at 10/03/2007 1:14 PM
Prediction for the next 12 months. Chris receives such a huge following of fans, from Nats fans to ball fans to sports fans, that he ends up quitting his day job, selling ad space on his blog and being photographed with Obama when he takes over the big house.
By
Anonymous, at 10/03/2007 11:43 PM
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