Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Ah, The Orioles Plan

Boswell writes something bright and chipper today about the success of "The PLAN!" (incidentally, I'm sick of attempts to evaluate "The PLAN!" after 50 games; it's not about this season, but about where the team is in 2010, but that's a diatribe for another day).

At any rate, a graf at the end caught my attention.
By next season, the Nats probably will add one or two free agents in the $5 million to $7 million range. And trades, even significant ones, now are possible with more depth of talent. At the very least, the whole Nats clubhouse expects a 30-homer bat under its Christmas tree. But the Hall of Fame-level, $15 million-a-year player -- the last piece of the puzzle, such as when Greg Maddox [SIC] went to Atlanta in 1993 -- isn't going to arrive until the Plan is much closer to fruition. You can bank on that.

That's the Orioles plan. Why spend good money on a valuable player when you can buy three mediocrities for the same amount?

Here's a complete list of players who got 5-7 million per year in last year's offseason.
  • Rich Aurilia
  • Danys Baez
  • Octavio Dotel
  • Ray Durham
  • Pedro Feliz
  • Keith Foulke
  • Eric Gagne
  • Jose Guillen
  • El Duque
  • Shea Hillenbrand
  • Aubrey Huff
  • Kenny Lofton
  • Jason Marquis
  • Bengie Molina
  • Mark Mulder
  • Jay Payton
  • Dave Roberts
  • Justin Speier
  • Woody Williams

    Would you have signed any of those deals? Maybe Durham or El Duque? Maybe Marquis -- though only with the benefit of hindsight?

    5-7 buys you an injury rehab case, aged mediocrities or league average players that even a lame farm system or a traipse through the minor league free agents and non-roster invitees could reproduce for a league minimum salary.

    This is the exact approach the Orioles have always taken with Free Agency, and they're well represented with three selections here. Only Payton is living up to expectations, if 1 HR and a sub-.400 slugging percentage is where your expectations were.

    So why go this approach? They shouldn't.

    The Nats should either go big, with an impact bat, or they should go home, and try to find next year's Dmitri Young.

    I suspect that they understand this better than Tom Boswell. And I pray to God that they understand it better than their comrades in the hellhole up north.

    • posted by Chris Needham at 11:50 PM

    15 Comments:

    • I would have signed Jose Guillen. Though that may have more to do with the fact that, since I didn't have to work with him, I found him a lot more entertaining than those who did. I mean, even when his arm was all but detached from his torso, he was still good for a laugh.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 12:58 AM  

    • I think you're missing another point on which teh Boz is plain wrong. Which on that list is the "30 HR bat" that is supposed to be under the Christmas tree? Aurilia did it once, five years ago, and Huff did it once, three years ago. To quote Mr. Tony, "That's it. That's the list." Now, there was a guy who was signed as an FA last year who hit 30 HRs in four of the last five seasons (and he hit 28 in the fifth of those)...but his signing price was considerably higher than even $15 mil a year, as we recall.

      I miss the days when Boz made sense. Can we give his column space to Sheinin?

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 8:47 AM  

    • Regarding your parenthetical comment:

      (incidentally, I'm sick of attempts to evaluate "The PLAN!" after 50 games; it's not about this season, but about where the team is in 2010, but that's a diatribe for another day)

      Maybe it is not about either this season OR 2010. To me it is just a very interesting team-building process, including this season and extending well beyond, and including all the seasons leading up to 2010 and beyond that too. Who knows when or if the magic year will be?

      In this area, we see what it is like to just patch year-by-year by signing old vets who are moving past their primes and who are just building their investments or partying styles. Angelos and Snyder show us that it just does not work. You can spend hundreds of millions, like the Yanks, and it still is no guarantee.

      So whatever the Nats do, the focus is on thinking ahead by aquiring young talent that can develop here, via the draft, trades and FA market. A good thing.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 8:52 AM  

    • Why go out and acquire a 30 HR bat? The expectation is that Zimmerman and 2/3's of our OF will turn into that type of player. And let's not forget that Nick Johnson will either NOT be playing for us in 2010, or he will be a role player. He's not a piece of the future, he's just a more popular version of Dmitri Young.

      One thing Kasten said that was correct, "Free agent pitchers can be expensive mistakes that haunt you for years." We either need to out scout other teams and get some bargain acquisitions, or we need to avoid big name singings right now.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 9:52 AM  

    • Whether Boswell's right or wrong, it undoubtedly is going to be a long slog through numerous below .500 seasons for the Nats.

      One clear distinction between the our Nats and the team up the road in Bal'mer is the fact that the NL East is a strong, competitive division, while the AL East is anything but. That's why I predict numerous below .500 seasons as the Nats struggle to produce big-league talent from their A, AA, and AAA teams. Good luck with that, with the Lerner/Kasten/Bowden team in charge, all of whom are at best unproven at any level.

      Attendance last night (perfect weather, and a true major-league team visiting): 18,400. That's small market change. The Mets drew 44,000.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 10:35 AM  

    • I would not call myself a "Plan" apologist of any sort, but how can you say that Kasten and Bowden are unproven at any level? 14 NL East titles don't prove Kasten on at least some level? He wasn't sitting around Atlanta watching paint dry as Cox and Schurholtz did all the work.

      Bowden was a decent GM in Cincinnati. He assembled a few good teams there, and he brought in some very talented non-pitchers.

      And I would much rather compete in the NL East than the AL East -- where the two highest payrolls in baseball, and 3 of the top 5, reside.

      Attendance last night sucked -- but it's also the Dodgers who don't draw many East Coast fans (see them play Atlanta or the Marlins) at a still crappy stadium on the night after a long week-end when people are just returning to town, getting settled back in, and are probably tired from the week-end activities.

      By Blogger Natsfan74, at 5/30/2007 10:51 AM  

    • Don't forget how Boz-dog slammed the O's just yesterday for their crappy clatch of FAs before praising the Plan today.

      By Blogger Bobtimist Prime, at 5/30/2007 11:18 AM  

    • If you're going to read market-viability into one May Tuesday night's attendance, let's look around the majors:

      NYM - 44K
      CHC - 39K
      BOS - 37K
      HOU - 33K
      TOR - 30K (Yankees)
      MIL - 27K
      PHI - 27K
      MIN - 23K
      WAS - 18.4K
      COL - 18.2K
      OAK - 18.0K
      PIT - 15K
      KC - 13K
      TB - 11K

      Not impressive, but hardly cause for panic. I can't say what this team might draw in 2010; that's going to depend largely on how competitive this team is, and whether or not folks find them entertaining. I just haven't seen anything so far that would indicate to me that people will NOT buy tickets and come out to see this team when it is worth seeing.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 11:27 AM  

    • you just can't compare the Nats and Mets attendance for this season. However, if you want to do some research, you'd see that back in the 90's when the Mets were losing 90+ games a season, they averaged 20-21,000 per game (about what the Nats are averaging this year). Once the Nats start winning consistantly, they wll start to draw more. And a new stadium will of course draw more immediately next season. And if "The Plan" is working in 2009 and beyond, then we'll see attendance numbers at or near capacity for many years to come.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 11:28 AM  

    • Is Barry Svulga stupid??

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/29/AR2007052901890.html

      In his latest Nats notes piece he says that minor league pitcher Hanrahan just (JUST) returned from a groin injury and pitched for the first time for three innings. Now Barry thinks he'll get called up to make a start for the big club???

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 11:58 AM  

    • Actually, Bill Ladson confirms Barry's guess about Speigner's next start being delayed and also echo's Barry's suggestion that Hanrahan might get the start:

      http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070529&content_id=1992990&vkey=news_was&fext=.jsp&c_id=was

      So if the idea that Hanrahan might start Saturday is stupid, I think you have to blame Manny or Jim, not Barry. Someone is floating the idea in the organization, I think. And will Speigner's delayed start, it seems edging closer to reality.

      -cass

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 12:09 PM  

    • I think that it will be Hanrahan because there aren't any other options. Redding has been horrendous, and for whatever reason, the Nats want to use Traber as only a reliever.

      Boswell simply did not do his homework and failed to realize that $5 to 7 million will not get you jack in the FA market. With the current league wide revenues, $10 million+ is the yearly minimum for players that can be difference makers. That said, the Lerners know that they will have to bring in at least one big name next season or they will be buried with criticism.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 12:28 PM  

    • I just noticed that the top 4 on the WHIP chart include 2 pitchers who are hurt and a back-up who plays once a week? Add in that the other player in the top 4 was a scrap heap pick-up for future trade potential... Wow!

      By Blogger Natsfan74, at 5/30/2007 1:41 PM  

    • Well unless they are willing to throw Hanrahan's groin into the fold and risk further injury just to make one spot start this won't happen. He's had one post-rehab outing, not even a start. Way to set a young arm up for failure.

      Ladson makes the same common sense mistake as Barry, don't start a guy after he just came off the DL. Don't risk his entire year for one spot start.

      Be smart, stick to the infamous Plan, let the kid prove he's healed in AAA with at least two starts and then bring him up later in the year. It's the end of May and we ain't winning the pennant.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 2:26 PM  

    • How is this for a plan.. get out of RFK NOW! Let's become a road team, like the old Expos.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/30/2007 9:34 PM  

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