Thursday, June 14, 2007

Page Is Back... Sort Of

Mitchell Page returns to the team as its roving minor league hitting instructor. Good for him, and I hope he's healthy and if the rumors are true, has gotten his life back in order again.

I still think that Page is a very good hitting coach, even as the team has vastly improved offensively since he took his leave.

Through May 11, when he took leave, the team was hitting .233/ .309/ .333 and scored exactly three runs per game. Since then, they're at .264/ .325/ .403 with a smidge over five runs per game. It's a completely different team. Of course, Page was working with an over-matched Casto, a broken-footed Young and a few other hitters who were slumping, so it's not fair to pin all of that difference on him.

Regardless, Lenny Harris has to feel like the smartest man in the room.

  • So they won again, a sweep of the dreaded Blowrioles. We now have the same record as that foul (fowl?) team, and are four games up on the last-place Cincinnati Reds. We're 'just' 8 back of the Mets, although we're 10 back of the Dodgers for the Wild Card. So don't print the playoff tickets just yet.

    Despite all this winning, the team is still 8 under .500, which gives you an idea of how large a hole they've dug. But, they WERE 16 under on May 9. They've halved that in just over a month.

    There are 96 games left.

    To get to .500, they'd have to go 52-44, an 88-win pace.
    To get to 85 wins, the margins of WC contention, they'd have to go 56-40, a 95-77 pace.
    To get to 89 wins, the amount needed for the WC the last two years, they'd have to go 60-36, a 101-61 pace.

    Over their last 30 games, they're 18-12, which is about as well as this team can possibly play. That's a 97-win pace.

    If they continue to play as well as they have for the last 30 games for the NEXT 100 GAMES, they'll be on the cusp of the Wild Card in September.

    I've got a lot more faith than I had in March, but I ain't drinkin' that much Kool-Aid.

    Just getting back to .500 would be remarkable enough for me. I still don't really think that that's possible, but with what we've seen lately, not too much would surprise me.


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