Page Is Back... Sort Of
Mitchell Page returns to the team as its roving minor league hitting instructor. Good for him, and I hope he's healthy and if the rumors are true, has gotten his life back in order again.
I still think that Page is a very good hitting coach, even as the team has vastly improved offensively since he took his leave.
Through May 11, when he took leave, the team was hitting .233/ .309/ .333 and scored exactly three runs per game. Since then, they're at .264/ .325/ .403 with a smidge over five runs per game. It's a completely different team. Of course, Page was working with an over-matched Casto, a broken-footed Young and a few other hitters who were slumping, so it's not fair to pin all of that difference on him.
Regardless, Lenny Harris has to feel like the smartest man in the room.
So they won again, a sweep of the dreaded Blowrioles. We now have the same record as that foul (fowl?) team, and are four games up on the last-place Cincinnati Reds. We're 'just' 8 back of the Mets, although we're 10 back of the Dodgers for the Wild Card. So don't print the playoff tickets just yet.
Despite all this winning, the team is still 8 under .500, which gives you an idea of how large a hole they've dug. But, they WERE 16 under on May 9. They've halved that in just over a month.
There are 96 games left.
To get to .500, they'd have to go 52-44, an 88-win pace.
To get to 85 wins, the margins of WC contention, they'd have to go 56-40, a 95-77 pace.
To get to 89 wins, the amount needed for the WC the last two years, they'd have to go 60-36, a 101-61 pace.
Over their last 30 games, they're 18-12, which is about as well as this team can possibly play. That's a 97-win pace.
If they continue to play as well as they have for the last 30 games for the NEXT 100 GAMES, they'll be on the cusp of the Wild Card in September.
I've got a lot more faith than I had in March, but I ain't drinkin' that much Kool-Aid.
Just getting back to .500 would be remarkable enough for me. I still don't really think that that's possible, but with what we've seen lately, not too much would surprise me.
I still think that Page is a very good hitting coach, even as the team has vastly improved offensively since he took his leave.
Through May 11, when he took leave, the team was hitting .233/ .309/ .333 and scored exactly three runs per game. Since then, they're at .264/ .325/ .403 with a smidge over five runs per game. It's a completely different team. Of course, Page was working with an over-matched Casto, a broken-footed Young and a few other hitters who were slumping, so it's not fair to pin all of that difference on him.
Regardless, Lenny Harris has to feel like the smartest man in the room.
Despite all this winning, the team is still 8 under .500, which gives you an idea of how large a hole they've dug. But, they WERE 16 under on May 9. They've halved that in just over a month.
There are 96 games left.
To get to .500, they'd have to go 52-44, an 88-win pace.
To get to 85 wins, the margins of WC contention, they'd have to go 56-40, a 95-77 pace.
To get to 89 wins, the amount needed for the WC the last two years, they'd have to go 60-36, a 101-61 pace.
Over their last 30 games, they're 18-12, which is about as well as this team can possibly play. That's a 97-win pace.
If they continue to play as well as they have for the last 30 games for the NEXT 100 GAMES, they'll be on the cusp of the Wild Card in September.
I've got a lot more faith than I had in March, but I ain't drinkin' that much Kool-Aid.
Just getting back to .500 would be remarkable enough for me. I still don't really think that that's possible, but with what we've seen lately, not too much would surprise me.
posted by Chris Needham at
11:30 PM
3 Comments:
I would be perfectly happy if they just finish ahead of the Marlins. Just don't finish dead-last in the NL East again.
Imagine what they might be able to accomplish with a healthy Bergmann and Hill back, and even Luis Ayala.
The mind boggles.
By
Joe Riley, at 6/15/2007 12:16 AM
Talking about the WC is a little over the top, but having at least 2 reasonably experienced (or even just plain average) starters and a CF that could hit would be a great start. Imagine if teh plan was that simple... 2 starters and a CF that could hit. Surely Young is worth that! How about Young and Flop? Or Young, Flop and one of these "how the hell are they pullingthis off" starters! Surely that gets you 2 average starters and a CF that can hit!
By
Anonymous, at 6/15/2007 1:48 AM
Some context to go with your numbers.
1st 81 games of '05 - .617 (50-31)
Next 243 games through '06 - .416 (101-141)
First 36 games this year - .306 (11-25)
Last 30 games this year - .600 (18-12).
Do we have a reversal of '05 in us? Probably not, but consider this:
The starting pitching will only get better, one presumes, when the bodies come back. That should improve the already solid bullpen by reducing innings and putting people back into their proper roles.
That said, the '05 team was never that good to begin with. If that team go go .500, why can't this one?
If we can survive the Tigers and Indians, at home where we stink out loud, we should revisit this .500 thing.
I'll take 2 out of 3 against the Jays for an appetizer, and then a split with the Tigers and Tribe for my main course?
Dessert? The rest of the National League, of course.
By
Anonymous, at 6/15/2007 1:47 PM
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