Friday, April 20, 2007

Spring Training Stats Are Stupid

I had this post typed out earlier in the week, but forgot to hit 'publish'. The numbers may have changed, but the overall sentiment remains... Spring Training stats are basically worthless.

To this point in the season, Nationals regulars have 40-50 ABs.

Ryan Zimmerman: Spring, .414. Regular Season, .204
Brian Schneider: Spring, .371. Regular Season, .179
Josh Wilson: Spring, .333. Regular Season, .000
Ryan Church: Spring, .215. Regular Season, .341
Ronnie Belliard: Spring, .229. Regular Season, .341

So why are we basing -- or at least attributing -- any decisions in spring off of performance?

12 Comments:

  • You forgot to mention Jesus Flores, who hit about .500 in Spring Training and has yet to get his first major league hit.

    By Anonymous phil dunn, at 4/20/2007 1:16 PM  

  • You might recall, I predicted Ryan Zimmerman's problems, based about an absent Nick Johnson and Zim's obsession with hitting everything to right field. Another thing I have noticed that no one has mentioned is that Brian Schneider, who two and three years ago had a very successful ratio of throwing out base stealers, can no longer throw accurately or timely to second base. He must have shoulder problems.

    By Anonymous phil dunn, at 4/20/2007 1:21 PM  

  • they actually appear to be very valuable. whoever does good will suck and whoever sucked will do good!

    By Blogger Christopher, at 4/20/2007 1:29 PM  

  • Hey, Josh is all the way up to .143 now!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4/20/2007 1:55 PM  

  • What is most distressing is the disappointing starts of five vetereans the Nats were counting on for team leadership: Zimmerman, Patterson, Cordero, Schneider and Kearns.

    If those 5 were playing up to expectations, the Nats would possibly be flirting with .500 right now.

    By Anonymous bdrube, at 4/20/2007 2:05 PM  

  • Cordero and Kearns are two of the most overrated players in baseball. Neither has been at all below expectations this year, IMO, especially Cordero, who has been his vintage self so far.

    I can't be the only Nats fan who would gladly undo last years trade with the Reds, am I?

    By Anonymous Tito, at 4/20/2007 4:41 PM  

  • So you'd rather have Brendan Harris, whom the Reds released, the injured Gary Majewski and the injured Bill Bray?

    Seriously???

    By Blogger Chris Needham, at 4/20/2007 4:43 PM  

  • OTOH, what decisions were based off of those ST stats? Zimmerman and Schneider were always going to be where they are, Belliard was a lock to make the bench at least from the moment he signed, and Manny said Church was going to be the starting LF regardless of spring performance (thank God).

    Aside from carrying Wilson over Jiminez, a push if ever there was one, I'm not sure any of these decisions were based on, or even attributed to Spring Training. Of course, there's also a school of thought that says April stats are largely meaningless until the weather warms up and everyone adjusts to full 9-inning games at live speed. So the Nats are either better or worse than their early season stats indicate anyway.

    By Blogger Nate, at 4/20/2007 4:47 PM  

  • Church isn't hitting .341, did you mix him up with Belliard or was there another reason. He is hitting .281. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7415

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4/20/2007 5:02 PM  

  • you can read numbers, but not the text in front of them, huh? ;)

    I bet you can even figure out which day I originally wrote the post with that link!

    By Blogger Chris Needham, at 4/20/2007 5:04 PM  

  • Okay, Cordero is now officially on my shit list. Just what the bullpen needed, another extra inning game.

    And it might be time to add Rauch to the list of 2007 disappointing veterans so far.

    If this keeps up, we won't be able to get a ham sandwich for The Chief at the trading deadline.

    By Anonymous bdrube, at 4/20/2007 10:23 PM  

  • bdrube:

    Do you really give up so quickly on our best pitchers from the past based on just a few weeks? Sure, Cordero's performance especially has been disappointing, but two years ago he was the best relief pitcher in baseball, and last year he wasn't bad either. It saddens me to see him struggle since he's always been my favorite Nats player, but I'm certainly not giving up yet. Both pitchers have got a lot of talent... give them more of a chance than just a few weeks.

    -cass

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4/21/2007 6:58 AM  

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