Thursday, February 01, 2007

A Triple For Kearns

Avoiding arbitration, the Nats have signed Austin Kearns to a three-year contract, and it buys out two years of free agency -- a steal for the Nats. I'm still waiting to see contract figures, but if I had to bet, I'd guess 3/$25MM.

If you missed it, and if you're really bored, I laid out the case for why I'd have extended Kearns a week or two ago.

More later once we see some numbers...

  • Now that I think about it, my guess is probably high. He'd be due to make around $4 million this year. Assuming a normal progression, $7-8 next year. What after that? $12? Three years for $22 million would be the best he'd do, it seems. So he should come in a bit lower than that in return for some security. How about 3/$18-20? Pulling numbers out of my ass is fun!

  • How does three years, $17.5 million with a $1 million buyout of a team option on a fourth year sound?

    $3.5MM this year, $5 million next, then $8 million in the final year. The Nats hold an option for a fourth year at $10 million.

    That's a really solid deal for the team as Kearns, when healthy, is among the top right fielders in the league.

    The point of Moneyball that so many people missed (either because they were crusty old insiders who didn't want to be told how to do their job, or blind fanboys who lack the ability to think for themselves) was that teams need to constantly find market inefficiencies to compete. Last year, the Nats cornered the market on second baseman. This year, it seems to be injury-prone outfielders. Where there's an opportunity, Jim Bowden'll take it.*

    * does not apply to the pitching staff.

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