Monday, April 11, 2005

Jim Bowden, Bargain Shopper

Who knew?

Well, Baseball Prospectus does, apparently. Nationals Review, which has awoken from its slumber, has a look at BPro's latest screwy stat.
The BP folks, once they create a "formula," have a hard time reconciling any contrary evidence that goes against such formula. This is especially true for PECOTA, and it's near-hilarity when they project Magglio Ordonez's performance in 2010, and make some definitive statement about his contract value.

So it's especially hypocritical to see Nate Silver's creation of a formula measuring contract value last week. And guess who came out with the best contract this past offseason? Cristian Guzman. Nope, I'm not shitting you. And it doesn't stop there, apparently the Nats' had the best offseason of any team in all of major league baseball!

Since we know how empirical our friends at BPro are about stats, certainly when presented with incontrovertible evidence, they're certain to change their tune, right? I wouldn't be asking a question in such a way if the answer was yes, huh? Click on the link for the exciting conclusion!

1 Comments:

  • Reminds me when, in an annual, the writer will look at the formula's projection and say, "Don't trust the formula; it's way off here."

    Granting that outliers always exist, how far is the leap from "don't trust the formula here" and just plain "don't trust the formula"?

    By Blogger Basil, at 4/11/2005 4:34 PM  

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