The Ian Desmond Effect

Here, and around, I've read a few comments already about how John Patterson is toast based on yesterday's shellacking by the O's.

It reminds me of spring training '05, when everyone latched on to Ian Desmond as the next Alex Rodriguez because he had a big hit and a pretty spectacular play or three in the field.

That was our only exposure to the kid (thanks, MASN!), so that's what lingered in our mind, elevating a pretty rough prospect into a finished diamond in our eyes.

Is that what happened in reverse with Patterson yesterday?

I see his overall numbers on the spring, and the 7.00 ERA looks scary, but as I've said before, you should pay almost no attention to ERA, nor really any spring training stats.

The one that I've cited is his K/BB ratio, and with a 7.00 ERA, it's gotta be terrible, right? Try 7 K, 0 BB. He's clearly doing a few things right.

He's getting hit, but some of that could be defense behind him. Some of it could be random luck. Some of it could be him tinkering with his other pitches and building arm strength.

There are any number of reasons why he's getting hit beyond "he's toast."

That he's still striking guys out, and not walking anyone is a pretty good indication that we don't need to pull the fork out from between his shoulders. Is he perfectly ready? Nope. But there's hope buried in there. You just need to squint your eyes and look beyond the Desmond effect to notice it.