Unreasonable Expectations

I've written before about the sometimes unreasonable expectations in the Nats.com mailbag (here's one on Kearns). Today's mailbag sets an unreasonable standard for Ryan Zimmerman, giving a prediction so ungodly that there's practically no way (barring a trip to Lo Duca's dealer) that young Zimmerman can meet it.

Do you think Zimmerman will have a breakout season in 2008?
-- Dylan H., Leona Valley, Calif.

There is no doubt in my mind about it. With his wrist 100 percent, Zimmerman will hit over .300 with 40 home runs and 120 RBIs. I think he's that good of a hitter.

That's a hell of a season.

You know how many times the Ladson Triple Crown has been done? Since 1901, it's been done 128 times. That sounds like a lot. It's not. (fully half of those have been done since 1996, too... I wonder what changed in '96... hmmm...)

Let's look at it a little closer though. Ryan Zimmerman is about to enter his age 23 season, still just a tiny tot in the scheme of all things baseball. Giving a little fudge factor, how many times do you think that's been done by someone 24 or under?

Just 19 times.

Looking at the list, there are a bunch of stiffs that I've never heard of. Chuck Klein? Jimmie Foxx? Mel Ott? Orlando Cepada? Who the hell are those guys? I think I've heard of that Mickey Mantle and Joe DiMaggio person. Oh, there's Hank Aaron, too.

Every single person on that list save for Hal Trosky and Jose Canseco (what was it that changed in '96 again?), is in the Hall of Fame or WILL be in the HOF once eligible. It's a list of bang-up, slam-dunk, no-doubt, wow-my-god-he's-awesome Hall-of-Famers.

And that's our expectation of Zimmerman?

Oy.

Crazy numbers in and of themselves aren't a problem, but there's a difference between hoping and a difference between expecting. As was the case with Kearns, if we're setting the bar that high -- so high that it's, for all intents and purposes, unobtainable -- then the player can do nothing but be a failure.

Zimmerman's a great player (well, actually he's probably only good at this point), and he's got a world of potential. Let's not get ahead of ourselves and expect him to morph overnight into an inner-circle hall-of-famer! Let's not set him up for failure.