CRAP: Offense

So we've made some projections for the outfield, infield, and catchers. If we've got performance, and we can take a swing at playing time, we can estimate runs.

I'm going to use the runs created cheat that I've used a few times. It's definitely not the best. It's not the most accurate. But, as usual, I'm looking for a range, not a number with three significant digits. When I did this little exercise last year, I came up with 697 runs scored. They scored 673. Off by 24... not great, but close enough.

The basic estimate formula I use is AB * on-base percentage * slugging average. As a spot check, last season, the Nats had 5520 ABS, a .325 OBP, and a .390 SLG. Multiply it out, and you're at 699, right about where my initial guess was. Close enough!

The key is estimating playing time. To do that, I looked at the average # of ABs each Nats position had last year, as well as what the league average # of ABs was, and assigned an AB total. I then divvied up the AB totals between the various contenders for playing time to get an AB estimate for each player at each position.

At catcher, for example, LoDuca gets 60% of the PT, Estrada 35% and Flores 5%. Multiply the OBP and SLG projections from the last few days' posts by those AB and sum up the position, and we can expect about 68 runs from our catchers this year. Last year, the Nats got about 64 runs, so it's a slight increase.

Rather than walking through the entire sheet position, by position, check it out yourself.

Quick note on a few of the PT assumptions:
-- NJ gets 65% of the time at 1B and Young gets about 200 ABs.
-- I've scaled back Lopez' playing time, giving him 25% at 2B and 30% at SS.
-- Dukes serves as the 4th outfielder, splitting time at all 3 positions, getting roughly 400 ABs all over the place.
-- For PHers and P, I just used the league average numbers. Because their AB totals are so low, even big sweeps here aren't going to change the overall numbers much.
-- I totaled up the team ABs, and they're within 50 of league average, within 1% of the total.

What's the bottom line?

We're due for about 795 runs, an improvement of about 120 over last year. I'd guess that ~half that is due to the move from the park. The rest is due to position-by-position improvement.

795 runs would've put the team 6th in the league, up from dead last. Since we're not looking for precision, it's probably better to look at the range: there are a lot of teams bunched up together just below Philly and COL. +/- 15 runs, and the Nats are likely to finish in the 3-7 range, well above league average.

Where does the improvement come from?

If you look at the full chart, next to the positional box, I list the 2007 total for that position, using the same ab*obp*slg methodology. The two biggest improvements are in left and center, where the Nats are using Dukes to fill in the hundreds of deadweight ABs given to Logan, Langerhans, Fick and Casto. Replacing their cumulative line with Dukes' potential (if he hits it!) is a pretty big net plus for the team.

What if they trade NJ?
Here's where it gets fun. We can make a few fun assumptions to get a rough estimate of various decisions.

Trade NJ and let DY play full time? 779 runs, a drop of about 20.

Cut Lopez? 793 runs, basically the same.

Lo Duca gets suspended and Flores plays every day? 799 runs, a slight uptick.

Zimmerman hits .300/40/120 and the Ladson Triple Crown? 840 runs

Zimmerman breaks his hand early in the season and Boone fills in? 760 runs.

So a lot can really happen. And it ain't perfect. But there's a pretty good chance that this is going to be a good offensive club.

Now about that pitching...