Fouled-Off Bunts: Bully For Billy Edition

Congrats to Bill Ladson for being the first reporter to get Paul Lo Duca on the record about his former drug-pushing ways.

Asked if staying in the Dodgers' Minor Leagues system for eight-plus years was the reason he started using performance-enhancing drugs, Lo Duca said, "I had a bad injury in the Minor Leagues. I got run over at home plate. That was part of it, but that's not an excuse. I did it to get healthy, and then I saw the results and I did it again.

"You see guys that might have done it or you suspected [of using it]. I was in the Minor Leagues for a long time and I thought this might get me over the hump. It's just a mistake that I made [and] I wish I could take back."

That's probably the most specific that any current (or most former!) players have been in addressing the Mitchell Report. Great stuff.

Shawn Hill is still hurt. He threw more and dealt with more pain, but he's going to try to suck it up and throw through it. Take that part away, and this seems an awful lot like Patterson's whole story. Still, Hill deserves tons of credit for trying to pitch through it. He likely realizes this is his last best shot. Either he pitches through the pain, manages it, and succeeds. Or he goes back in for more surgery, effectively ending his career before it began. I don't envy the choice.

Jason Bergmann is starting to throw a sinker. Good!

Bergmann's been a pretty extreme flyballer in his years with the Nats, owing to that high 4-seam fastball. It's important in that a flyball generally leads to more runs than a groundball (owing to doubles and triples, and the fact that it's hard to hit a grounder over a fence!)

Bergmann's peripheral numbers were quite good last year. He struck out a bunch. He got the walks under control, to a normal level. He just allowed homers like a madman. And moving to the smaller park, that was going to be a bit more of a problem. Throwing a sinker and getting more groundballs likely alleviates some of that.

Svrluga's report notes that he's aiming to throw about half and half 2- and 4-seamers. I'll be interested to see the kind of movement he's able to generate on the 2-seamer. Acta certainly seems impressed by his quote there.

Jesus Flores officially starts in the majors. Good!

All the talk about Will Nieves starting the season as the backup didn't make much sense to me, primarily because of 40-man implications. I assumed that the intent with that, especially if it's a short-term problem, was to keep Flores down the entire season, thereby gaining an additional option year. (players who stay down for a full year get an extra year). Anyway, the better player's coming north to start.

BS Prediction Time!

SG at the Replacement Level Yankees blog runs his annual prediction blowout. He takes all the major projection systems, runs them through a simulator a bazillion and one times, then spits out the results. Post 1. Post 2.

Bottom line: After 6,000 sims, the Nats average 70 wins among the six projection systems he uses. One of the individual systems has them as high as 74. A different projection system has them at 68.

My number based on my RS/RA analysis was something like 75. My gut says it's a bit lower than that, but I'll have my final number before the season starts.