Monday, May 08, 2006

The Pirates, But Still

The homestand didn't quite go as swimmingly as we'd hoped, but it's a start. The individual pieces on this team are decent (there's a core of a contending team here), but they're like a wave. Remember back to science class in Junior High when the teacher got the wave machine out? He'd twist and turn and pull a dial, creating many different waves in the shallow tray. He turned them this way, and there'd be chaos as they crashed into each other in a seemingly random pattern. He'd pull the lever that way and the waves would completely cancel each other out, leaving a placid pool. And other times he'd rotate the knob, and the waves would magnify and combine in intensity.

We need Frank to rotate the knob.

I don't know what he can do, and I'm pretty sure, based on some of the statements he's made recently, that he doesn't really have a clue. But one of these days, something's going to click, and this team's going to get on a really hot streak, winning 7 of 9, or something like that. It probably won't be enough to get them in contention, but they're capable of playing winning baseball, just as they did this weekend.

  • Sunday had a bunch of good signs. Mike O'Connor got the win, despite not pitching well at all. He was all over the place with his pitches, and a better team would've smacked him around. But, he got the job done, darting in and out of danger as if he were pitching TO the Nats.

    Ryan Zimmerman ripped two doubles, driving the ball as he continues to adjust. At times it's been a steep learning curve, but he keeps meeting the challenge. His overall numbers are below what most people expected, but there's so much potential there.

    Perhaps most encouraging was Jose Guillen. He's been taking the occasional pitch to left, even as he continues to fly to center. I'm not sure if he's working on pulling the ball -- Soriano's success is showing him the way. But he's getting more flyballs to left. Yesterday, he crushed a bomb into the upper deck, easily the longest homer he's hit at RFK, and his first since last August. (VIDEO) It's gotta be one of the longest homers hit at the stadium. A fluke? or the beginning of a trend? Let's hope it's the latter. For now, he wins a Majority Whip for his no-doubter.

    Is there anything more fun than watching a batter completely turn on a pitch like that? It's like an accident; you can see it coming, even before the batter connects, and I love the fleeting feeling of glee as you make the instantaneous calculation in your head of how far it's going to go.

  • Saturday's game was frustratingly exciting. Despite the loss, the bullpen pitched really well, even as Ramon Ortiz didn't.

    My patience with Ramon Ortiz is nearing its end. He went just 5 innings, giving up four runs and striking out only two batters. He just can't consistently get major league hitters out any more.

    24% of the balls hit off him are line drives. That's an ungodly high total, which even a pitching machine would be hard to duplicate. He's struck out just 3.2 batters per 9, which is about half as many as a competent starter needs. He's walking 3.5 per 9, which is too high, especially in combination with the number of hits he allows: Batters are hitting .326 off him. Ugly, ugly, ugly. But because of Bowden's pitching, pitching, pitching strategy, he's all we have. But he does earn another Duck!

  • Friday night's game was about as good a game as the Nats have played since last June. They dominated the 'Rates from start to finish as Majority Whip Winner Zach Day lobbed up seven shutout innings. Day looked strong, as his sinker had plenty of movement, moving away from lefties. He complimented that with a passable slider, which moved in the opposite direction -- just enough to keep hitter's off balance.

    If Day's shoulder holds up, perhaps he can give the team consistent innings -- which is really what it needs now, more than anything.

    Offensively, it was the Nick Johnson show. He hadn't hit anything for about two weeks until his two homers, both of which showed Jose Guillen up. His first went high and far over the centerfield wall. His second went opposite field, deep over the left-field gap.

    Is it just me or does the ball seem to be carrying a bit better this year than last? We've already seen three or four opposite field and CF homers, when we say maybe 5 combined last year. The ball's definitely scooting down the lines, too. Some of that's the Ramon and Livan BP fest, for sure. I dunno. I'll blame the juiced ball, I guess.

  • I never officially declared it, but Livan Hernandez gets the Duck for Thursday night's game -- more for the depression he put me in than his major suckage.

  • 41 Comments:

    • Perhaps just applying a Nationals sticket to the seat would do, similar to the sticker on the Bartman seat at Wrigley. Unlikely that the crack customer service at RFK would even notice.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 10:18 AM  

    • Sticket, sticker - oops.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 10:19 AM  

    • We need JP back to keep this momentum up...he needs to suck it up and pitch hurt the rest of the way.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 1:14 PM  

    • You don't 'suck up' the kind of injury he has. His isn't all that different from what Ayala had, and is very similar to what's keeping Drese out.

      He needs rest, and then he needs to be watched. Even after the rest, there are no guarantees that he's going to be able to stay out there forever.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 5/08/2006 1:18 PM  

    • I respectfully disagree. Patterson has never pitched through pain in his career and the trend continues. We might not see him again until July. This (forearm strain) is an injury that you can pitch through. Its not like it will get better with rest...either have the surgery or get back on the hill.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 1:29 PM  

    • You're right about Patterson being a pain about certain things. If he doesn't feel well, he's certainly willing to pull himself from a start.

      But this is the exception. It's not a forearm strain, it's a flexor strain, which is much more serious than a 'cramp'.

      That's the kind of injury, which if he tries to pitch through, will lead to an ulnar strain. And when you strain your ulnar, you're on your road to Tommy John surgery.

      Seeing how he's already been through Tommy John surgery, the caution is warranted. Another surgery, and the useful portion of his career is over.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 5/08/2006 1:34 PM  

    • I have to agree Anonymous on this one. Patterson's track record is not one of health. One good season does not give him the right to sit back and take it easy. Get on the hill JP.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 1:38 PM  

    • Since it's a serious injury (and not something like a hangnail), what does bringing him back early achieve?

      His replacement, O'Connor, is pitching decently -- Patterson likely wouldn't have earned the team any more wins than the kid would have.

      And what does it matter? Isn't having a healthy Patterson NEXT year more important than some pointless struggle to finish ahead of the Marlins?

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 5/08/2006 1:46 PM  

    • Come on Chris - why do you think its a serious injury? I gotta agree with NJ. He pitched 50 pitches in extended ST last week and was due to pitch a rehab stint this week before yesterday's setback. Patterson needs to get back out there and pitch through it. OC has pitched ok but not making anyone forget Don Drysdale -JP could also replace that bum "baby Pedro" in the rotation. Lets stop giving this guy slack and call him out a little more.

      By Blogger WinwithZimm, at 5/08/2006 2:03 PM  

    • Because it's a flexor tendon strain!

      Read up on the injury. Google it. Google the pitchers who've HAD that type of injury.

      Look at what I said in the last post. Pitching through that specific type of strain leads to ulnar problems. Ulnar problems lead to Tommy John surgery.

      This isn't a suck it up kind of thing.

      He missed a start or two last year with the flu. THAT'S a suck it up kind of thing.

      Flexor strains aren't.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 5/08/2006 2:20 PM  

    • I'm completely with Chris on this one. This is a minor injury which could become a serious one. And why take the risk? Pushing Patterson to come back earlier buys us at most a couple of wins. Is that worth potentially losing our number 1 starter for years to come? Patterson is wayyy too good to risk him in this situation.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 3:10 PM  

    • Lets get one thing straight here, a pitcher needs to complete more than one good season before they receive three "Y"'s in wayyy too good. Patterson still has a lot to prove to me before I even say that he is too good, let alone wayyy too good. I would say that he is WAYYYY tooo fragile (that is four y's and an extra o for those keeping score).

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 3:32 PM  

    • When do we stop babying Patterson? The guy has been in the bigs long enough to know that you are not going to be 100% every day. Say what you want about Livo, but he is good to go every fifth day. You guys need to stop making excuses for him and start realizing that this guy needs to grow a pair.

      By Blogger WinwithZimm, at 5/08/2006 3:37 PM  

    • Let me guess... back in your day pitchers completed every start, and they threw 400 innings per year, right? And we bunted EVERY TIME, and we liked it! ;)

      Patterson isn't quite an ace, but he's almost there.

      Pushing him through THIS PARTICULAR injury is going to assure that he'll NEVER get there.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 5/08/2006 3:38 PM  

    • Zimm,

      With all do respect, this MAN UP Bullshit is what cause Jose Guillen to hit .100 at the end of last year, and has helped contribute to his poor season this year.

      Patterson's injury is a serious one, and unless your medical credentials are better than Doctor Kremcheck's, you don't really know what you're talking about.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 5/08/2006 3:40 PM  

    • NJ-Fine, point taken. How's this, he has wayyyyy (oh yeah, I upped you another y) too much potential to be risked FOR NO GOOD REASON in early May. Yeah, he's had injury problems, and he's going to need to learn how to pitch at less then 100%, but tendon issues are not something you screw around with.

      This team plays hurt too often, and as a result we have broken down players doing nothing for the team other then filling space on the field. I don't want that for JP, he and Zimmerman are the two guys on this team who could end up being nationally recognized stars one day (I have questions about Cordero as a long-term elite closer), and I'm not willing to risk fucking with that to win a couple of games in May in a season where we are unlikely to even reach .500

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 3:48 PM  

    • You guys realize he is 28 and has pitched over 100 innings ONCE in his career correct? That proves to me that he has never been willing to pitch in pain. Personally I am not willing to hand the keys to the franchise to someone as unreliable as him. I don't think he deserves the All-Star treatment quite yet.

      If he's really hurt so be it. But, let's tone down our expectations of this guy until he proves something.

      By Blogger WinwithZimm, at 5/08/2006 4:01 PM  

    • Do you know why he's never pitched that much?

      Because he's been injured!

      So, yes, you have to take it easy with him. And no, he's not an ace yet. But you're never going to have an ace, if you continue to throw him out there when he's hurt.

      See also: Ayala, Luis; Majewski, Gary; Drese, Ryan

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 5/08/2006 4:03 PM  

    • Majewski, Ayala, and Drese probably would not make make the roster of most major league teams. And JP probably would be a number 3 or 4 guy on most contenders. So, lets not pamper this guy. If this franchise expects to build aroud those four pitchers, then we can enjoy a sub-500 team for the foreseeable future.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 4:21 PM  

    • Agreed on the above NJ except Ayala.

      Bottom line - Patterson is 28 and never had a healthly season. Relying on him is like relying on fox news to be unbiased.

      By Blogger WinwithZimm, at 5/08/2006 4:33 PM  

    • If JP knew that the three of you would be jerking him off so hard he would never have hurt his forearm!

      By Blogger WinwithZimm, at 5/08/2006 4:35 PM  

    • Looks like Frank Robinson, Jim Bowden and Jose Guillen found Chris's blog.

      Let's be serious. You don't screw with a flexor tendon strain. Sure, maybe he plays through pain, but what if he aggravates the injury and puts himself out for the year? What good will he do us then?

      You play through pain under the following circumstances:
      The injured player is better than the alternatives

      AND

      There is minimal risk of making the injury more serious.

      If Patterson hurts his flexor tendon further, he's out for a very long time.

      Get real.

      By Blogger Rocket1124, at 5/08/2006 5:43 PM  

    • Get real, guys. First of all, a All-Star firstbaseman posts on your site and you jump all over him. (Yes, he SHOULD have been an All-Star in 2005!!1!) And, even though he appears to be only a fan and not the real Zimmerman, winwithzimm makes some good points.

      What I don't get is why should--of all people--Guzman get the star treatment?! I've never even heard of a slap tear or whatever. I mean, where does he get off? He didn't even hit .250 last year! If anything, you'd think he would have something to prove.

      I can't believe Frank lets the players get away with this crap.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 6:02 PM  

    • Yuda - You need to start following baseball outside the beltway buddy. JP would MAYBE be a third starter on the Cards beind Cy Young Carpenter and Mulder. As for the Yankees - I believe Randy and Moose have demonstrated the ability to win (and, um, stay healhty) moreso then JP. Red Sox - again, No 3 at best behind Schilling and Beckett. Padres - MAYBE no 2 behind Peavy. Astros - behind Oswalt and AP (and the Rocket if he comes back).

      I rest my case. He is a decent pitcher who has bounced around because of injuries and is NOT to be relied upon. End of story.

      By Blogger WinwithZimm, at 5/08/2006 6:26 PM  

    • Yuda-

      Where to begin....

      Firstly, you are comparing apples and oranges. I was merely stating where JP would fall in the rotations of many contenders (didn't include all, but I will) based on logic (and not necessarily empirical data).

      For example, yes, Carpenter finally lived up to his potential last year (and into this year). Mulder had a bad year last year but has come back strong this year. If you could look me in the eyes and tell me that, if you were Tony La Russa (one of the pioneers of sabermetrics btw) you would hand the ball to JP on opening day you don't deserve to have an account on this site.

      Would I agree that I would take a HEALTHY JP over Randy Johnson in this stage of his career - sure. But to say that, if I had to win one game, I would give the ball to JP over Randy - there is no chance in hell. JP would probably hurt himself on the way to the ballpark.

      Sure, Beckett is soft, and the blister problem has haunted him his whole career. But, he has a World Series MVP. Impressed? I thought so.

      I would agree that JP has one of the great young arms in the game and his WHIP and ERA+ stats are impressive. But to steal a cliche, in this game W's are most important, and he aint getting too many on the DL (it is a nice way to keep the ERA down though). I love to watch the guy pitch but you would have to be crazy to say he's among the 20 best pitchers in baseball (relievers included).

      By Blogger WinwithZimm, at 5/08/2006 7:13 PM  

    • Say what you want about Livo, but he is good to go every fifth day.

      Available to pitch? Yes. Good to go? I believe his batting practice like stats this season would disagree. Are the Nationals actually better off with Livan "manning up" and putting them in a 4-0 or 5-0 hole after one inning?

      I want to echo what Chris said about rushing back and/or playing injured. It makes little to no sense to do it. Playing hurt is one thing. Playing injured is another. So please take the macho BS someplace else.

      By Blogger Brian, at 5/08/2006 7:17 PM  

    • I've never even heard of a slap tear or whatever. I mean, where does he get off?

      Will Carroll, who will annoying at times, knows his stuff about baseball injuries. He has your explanation of the mysterious SLAP tear, and hey look, it's the most common labrum tear

      The most common variety of labrum tear is a SLAP—superior lesion, anterior to posterior. The SLAP tear feels like a "catch", a slight click or pop in the normal overhand motion.

      Shoulder injuries tend to present themselves as pain and tenderness with a concurrent loss of speed on the fastball. A torn labrum is no different. But because it's positioned between two bones, a damaged labrum is far more difficult to detect than other shoulder problems, like a torn rotator cuff. Doctors are only now getting the diagnostic tools to detect labrum tears, so it's impossible to say how many great hurlers of the past suffered the injury. Even today it's tough to tell which pitchers have labrum trouble. Baseball teams often consult with multiple orthopedists and radiologists in an attempt to reach a consensus. One team's policy is to show an MRI to five doctors—majority diagnosis rules. The only way to know for sure that your pitcher has a torn labrum is to conduct exploratory surgery.

      If an operation is necessary, the surgeon either enters the shoulder with a scalpel or pops in one to three arthroscopes outfitted with cameras and cutting instruments. The doctor then cleans up the tear and reattaches the labrum using sutures, much as they would with a deep cut to the skin. While newer techniques involve specialized devices that standardize the anchors and sutures, shoulder surgery is still far more complex and risky than, say, an elbow reconstruction.

      By Blogger Brian, at 5/08/2006 7:26 PM  

    • It is too bad that Yuda thinks that this is a lost season, and we are only in the beginning of the second month. But continue enjoy the special talent of JP, a premier pitcher in the league. As you will only probably see him pitch 15 more starts over the next 4 years. JP never plays injured, and never gets hurt so I am sure he is the perfect guy to anchor the team. You and Bowden seem to be drinking from the same cup.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 7:31 PM  

    • Brian-

      You are blurring the issue. My comment was aimed at Livan's reliability, not his stats. Sure, he's had a bad year so far, but he's ALOT better then most of the other arms on this staff. JP HAS NEVER HAD A HEALTHY SEASON. What makes you think he will in the future? We can talk about how good he is all day long (in fact, we have). It won't make any difference, the guy is another Prior and Wood- hurt ALL the time.

      By Blogger WinwithZimm, at 5/08/2006 7:32 PM  

    • Your with me leather.

      Yuda you are probably looking up stats right now and creating a great excel spreadsheet, but you are Zim's bitch.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/08/2006 7:53 PM  

    • He's reliable, yes. But at what cost? How valuable is a guy who will go out there evry fifth day but then pitch poorly?

      I understand your point with regards to Patterson and I do agree he has not earned elite SP status but I don't agree with the "just rub some dirt on it and pitch through the pain" stuff. In my opinion, that's garbage.

      By Blogger Brian, at 5/08/2006 8:09 PM  

    • Stop saying that Patterson is getting star treatment. No one here ever said that.

      Who would you rather have on the mound? An injured Patterson risking a career-ending injury? Or a healthy Zach Day or Mike O'Connor?

      It's reasonable to tell him to suck it up if he's got a headache or a hangnail or even something sore. But this is an injury that if hurt further could end his career.

      By Blogger Rocket1124, at 5/08/2006 10:19 PM  

    • General Manager Jim Bowden said: "Can he pitch with this right now? Yes. He can pitch. He could pitch every fifth day, no issues. Right now. Without risking any further injury."

      You guys are morons. Apparently you are closer to the injury than Bowden.

      As my final post to this terrible blog, I reiterate Zim's comment that JP should quit complaining and get on the hill.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/10/2006 6:18 PM  

    • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

      By Blogger Brian, at 5/10/2006 7:38 PM  

    • I just found where you cherrypicked your quote. The complete quote is

      "We have a responsibility to give our players the best possible care," He is a potential future No. 1 starter. We're going to take care of his arm.

      "If this was a pennant race in September, he'd be pitching every fifth day. He can pitch with this right now, but everybody knows that the only way to get this type of inflammation cleared up is rest."

      Next time make sure you provide the complete picture.

      By Blogger Brian, at 5/10/2006 7:42 PM  

    • I'm next!

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/10/2006 9:02 PM  

    • I saw the same quote NJ was referring to in Svrluga's column. It wasn't "cherrypicked" at all - if it was, Svrulga is to blame. Here is the full paragraph from the article:

      Visits to Andrews carry a connotation of a major problem. But Nationals officials insist this is, as head athletic trainer Tim Abraham said Tuesday, "a soft-tissue injury" and that the ligament is fine. In fact General Manager Jim Bowden said: "Can he pitch with this right now? Yes. He can pitch. He could pitch every fifth day, no issues. Right now. Without risking any further injury. But the reality is you're not going to get better for the rest of the year unless you rest it and get the soreness out."

      NJ's point, as has been mine all along, is that he can pitch RIGHT NOW without risking further injury. All of you have been running your mouths about the risk of Tommy John, which the trainers, Bowden, and Dr. James Andrews clearly refute. He pitched pretty effectively when he had this injury - I'd venture to say he'd look alot better out there then anyone else from this staff.

      By Blogger WinwithZimm, at 5/11/2006 9:20 AM  

    • "Can he pitch with this right now? Yes. He can pitch. He could pitch every fifth day, no issues. Right now. Without risking any further injury. But the reality is you're not going to get better for the rest of the year unless you rest it and get the soreness out."

      By Blogger WinwithZimm, at 5/11/2006 11:48 AM  

    • Dear Sir,

      If a pitcher visits me, he doesn't pitch for at least another two or three weeks. It's like a rule.

      Why? Because he's hurt, and we don't want it to get fucking worse.

      Sincerely,
      Jimmy

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5/11/2006 3:57 PM  

    • Would love to know where you got that diagnosis for Patterson. Everything I have read has said "strained forearm", "soreness" and "tendinitis".

      But I guess since you post on a blog you are closer to the situation then Bowden and Tim Abraham.

      I love how you equate this to me challenging their manhood. Believe it or not everyone is going to play through some element of pain during a 162 game season. Patterson's threshold, however, seems to be FAR lower then everyone else's. You cannot disagree with that. Do I blame him for being cautious since he's already got one TJ under his belt? Of course not. But give me a break with the macho stuff.

      By Blogger WinwithZimm, at 5/11/2006 5:30 PM  

    • The Patterson diagnosis is from the initial DL articles.

      Take your pick of sources

      Sure, Patterson DOES need to sack up and learn how to pitch when his tummy hurts. Not when his elbow hurts, though. Check out Dave Sheinin's Washington Post chat from yesterday. He made the connection from forearm to elbow, too. Read the link Yuda provides or the ones I linked in the Patterson post. They'll give you lots of good info.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 5/11/2006 6:14 PM  

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