ZIPS-A-Dee-Doo-Dah
Dan Szymborski has released his ZIPS projections for next year. I’d ordinarily play a few seasons of Diamond-Mind with them, but he only released them in version 9 and it’s not compatible with my old version. Oh well.
I won’t get into how he calculates them. That’s for you to find out.
Here are the projections for the Nats:
Schneider: .245/ .317/ .372
Johnson .268/ .388/ .431
Vidro .303/ .381/ .445
Guzman .269/ .305/ .373
Castilla .237 /.292 /.402
Sledge .288 /.363 /.454
Chavez .283/ .330/ .376
Wilkerson .263/ .380/ .457
Guillen .297/ .352/ .499
Those look reasonably in-line with what they should be. Wilkerson’s slugging might be a little low, but remember, they’re moving from a decent hitter’s park (especially when you factor in the games in Hiram Bithorn) to what will probably be a very Shea-like park, in more ways than one. (Actually, I think that Dan used Shea as the model for the park effects on these projections.)
Other random projections of note:
Juan Rivera: .304/ .357/ .466
Ryan Church: .278/ .347/ .451
Wil Cordero: .255/ .333/ .395
Gary Bennett: .226/ .290/ .305
Maicer Izturis: .286/ .357/ .369 If he hits that, it’d be stunning.
Larry Broadway: .240/ .320/ .388
Brendan Harris: .267/ .329/ .416
JJ Davis: .265/ .325/ .500??? Is that a Tee-ball projection?
And, just for the hell of it:
Mike Cameron: .244/ .336/ .449
I won’t get into how he calculates them. That’s for you to find out.
Here are the projections for the Nats:
Schneider: .245/ .317/ .372
Johnson .268/ .388/ .431
Vidro .303/ .381/ .445
Guzman .269/ .305/ .373
Castilla .237 /.292 /.402
Sledge .288 /.363 /.454
Chavez .283/ .330/ .376
Wilkerson .263/ .380/ .457
Guillen .297/ .352/ .499
Those look reasonably in-line with what they should be. Wilkerson’s slugging might be a little low, but remember, they’re moving from a decent hitter’s park (especially when you factor in the games in Hiram Bithorn) to what will probably be a very Shea-like park, in more ways than one. (Actually, I think that Dan used Shea as the model for the park effects on these projections.)
Other random projections of note:
Juan Rivera: .304/ .357/ .466
Ryan Church: .278/ .347/ .451
Wil Cordero: .255/ .333/ .395
Gary Bennett: .226/ .290/ .305
Maicer Izturis: .286/ .357/ .369 If he hits that, it’d be stunning.
Larry Broadway: .240/ .320/ .388
Brendan Harris: .267/ .329/ .416
JJ Davis: .265/ .325/ .500??? Is that a Tee-ball projection?
And, just for the hell of it:
Mike Cameron: .244/ .336/ .449
posted by Chris Needham at
3:45 PM
2 Comments:
Looking at that, I just got an idea for my own projection system. I just project that everyone will have the same stats they did last year - it wouldn't look a whole lot different from ZIPS.
He did give Sledge and Endy a little extra OBP - that'd be nice.
By
Ryan, at 1/11/2005 4:18 PM
Primer actually ran a contest a year or two ago to guess people's stats. That's essentially what I did. If they were young, I increased them slightly. If they were old, I took a few points here and there. Nothing major, and certainly nothing scientific.
I think I came in 4th?
By
Chris Needham, at 1/11/2005 4:20 PM
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