Monday, November 29, 2004

Hey, Mister Wilson!

John at Washington Baseball Blog discusses the throw-away line in Peter Gammons' column that the Nats are interested in a three-year deal with RHP/Mediocrity Paul Wilson.

Wilson's been steadily consistent, with an adjusted ERA exactly 8% worse than average each of the last four years. John looks further at the numbers:
Wilson, a righty, will be 32 next year. His ERA last year was 4.36, with 5.73 K/9, but 1.86 K/BB and a 1.39 WHIP. Last year, opponents hit .271 off of him, with a .330 OBP. His fast ball (sinker) doesn't reach 90, and his other major pitch is an average changeup. He's effective when he can keep his fastball down, and he's not otherwise. Last year, 16 of his 29 games were quality starts. His bad games and good games were grouped together. His biggest stinker came on August 13, against San Diego, where he gave up 7 runs on 8 hits in 1.1+ innings, with 2 HR.

Strangely enough, I was at that game and saw San Diego tee off on him. The game was practically over before I even found my seats. He was having back problems--stiffening, that sorta thing--and made a go of it. They put him on the DL the very next day. When he came back, he pitched well in 6 starts--with only one really bad outing, coming against a red-hot Houston lineup.

He'd be an ok choice at 4th starter, but this is a staff of 4th starters--all with some upside. I can't really see how Wilson would be an improvement on Ohka et al--especially on a three-year deal.

If Bowden wants to commit to a pitcher, go with Clement or Radke someone who, while not quite an ace, would be an acceptable number two. While Livan and his machine-like 230-inning arm, isn't quite an ace either, it'd be nice knowing that you had a strong 2/5ths anchoring the front of the rotation.