Prepare To Eat Crow, or It Does Mean A Thing Because He Does Have That Swing, Part 2
Yesterday I wrote about how narrowly focusing on Alf Soriano's poor on-base percentage is a mistake because he does many other things well. I concluded by pointing out the problem with relying on his road stats, as well as that his home park isn't all that advantageous to right-handed hitters.
We know that RFK is even less advantageous to hitters. I'll have the final numbers this week, but it probably reduces homers by at least 20%. That would be a substantial drop for Soriano. I'm not going to be stupid enough to say he's going to hit 35 home runs. But you can probably pencil him in for 25-30. Even 25 would have led the team last year.
The reason I'm comfortable doing that is his swing. He has the perfect power-hitting style for RFK. Soriano uses a huge bat. He has amazingly strong wrists that allow him to whip that over-sized bat through the zone, creating his tremendous power.
He is a pretty extreme flyball hitter, hitting more than twice as many flyballs as ground balls. When he likes a pitch, he'll turn, whip the bat through the zone and uppercut it, pulling it to left field. Despite the spacious gaps, it's a strategy that could work at RFK.
If you haven't really seen Soriano hit, here are three examples of his swing from this year. Look at the huge bat, notice how quickly he gets the bat head out in front of the zone, and see how far the ball carries. Each of these homers would likely be out at RFK.
Homer to left versus the Angels.
Homer to left versus the Devil Rays with the incomparable DeWayne Staats at the mic.
Homer Just to the left of center against the Yankees.
Thanks to the hitting charts at MLB.com, we can see even more easily that his hitting style is a good fit for the park. To do so, it's easiest to compare him to another right-handed batter who's swing isn't made for the park. Conveniently, the Nationals had one such player.
Take a look at Jose Guillen's hitting chart. Then click on the box next to flyballs. It shows you every place one of his flies was caught. He hits very few balls for power to left field. (If you turn doubles on, you see that he was able to drive some balls.) From left-center (which is mis-marked as 380 here -- it's actually 390) to the line, he has only three balls that are driven. Take a look at centerfield and right-center though. There's a much higher number of balls being driven deep to those areas. Jose Guillen's power is to center and to the opposite field -- two places that are fairly unforgiving at RFK. As the opposing batters showed us, especially as the season slid into the crapper, you need to hammer balls down the line, and make the bullpen pitchers run for cover.
Compare that to Alf's hitting chart. He has quite a few balls hit towards left field. He also has a large number of balls hit to shallow right field, which most likely represent popups when he mistimes a pitch he's trying to crush. If you click the tabs for doubles and homers, you'll see the effect even more dramatically. He has a few homers to right, but the majority are straight to left. He's a pull hitter, and pull hitters can have success at RFK.
Because of his hitting style, there will be a lot of cans of corn to the outfield, but that's simply because he hits so many flyballs. Is a grounder to the shortstop preferable to a fly to center? It can be a frustrating style to watch sometimes, but an out is an out, more or less.
So while RFK is likely to cut down on his homers, he won't have as large a problem as Guillen or Vinny Castilla (another right-handed batter who drove balls to center).
Later, I'll have a look at defense, and a look at the trade itself.
We know that RFK is even less advantageous to hitters. I'll have the final numbers this week, but it probably reduces homers by at least 20%. That would be a substantial drop for Soriano. I'm not going to be stupid enough to say he's going to hit 35 home runs. But you can probably pencil him in for 25-30. Even 25 would have led the team last year.
The reason I'm comfortable doing that is his swing. He has the perfect power-hitting style for RFK. Soriano uses a huge bat. He has amazingly strong wrists that allow him to whip that over-sized bat through the zone, creating his tremendous power.
He is a pretty extreme flyball hitter, hitting more than twice as many flyballs as ground balls. When he likes a pitch, he'll turn, whip the bat through the zone and uppercut it, pulling it to left field. Despite the spacious gaps, it's a strategy that could work at RFK.
If you haven't really seen Soriano hit, here are three examples of his swing from this year. Look at the huge bat, notice how quickly he gets the bat head out in front of the zone, and see how far the ball carries. Each of these homers would likely be out at RFK.
Thanks to the hitting charts at MLB.com, we can see even more easily that his hitting style is a good fit for the park. To do so, it's easiest to compare him to another right-handed batter who's swing isn't made for the park. Conveniently, the Nationals had one such player.
Take a look at Jose Guillen's hitting chart. Then click on the box next to flyballs. It shows you every place one of his flies was caught. He hits very few balls for power to left field. (If you turn doubles on, you see that he was able to drive some balls.) From left-center (which is mis-marked as 380 here -- it's actually 390) to the line, he has only three balls that are driven. Take a look at centerfield and right-center though. There's a much higher number of balls being driven deep to those areas. Jose Guillen's power is to center and to the opposite field -- two places that are fairly unforgiving at RFK. As the opposing batters showed us, especially as the season slid into the crapper, you need to hammer balls down the line, and make the bullpen pitchers run for cover.
Compare that to Alf's hitting chart. He has quite a few balls hit towards left field. He also has a large number of balls hit to shallow right field, which most likely represent popups when he mistimes a pitch he's trying to crush. If you click the tabs for doubles and homers, you'll see the effect even more dramatically. He has a few homers to right, but the majority are straight to left. He's a pull hitter, and pull hitters can have success at RFK.
Because of his hitting style, there will be a lot of cans of corn to the outfield, but that's simply because he hits so many flyballs. Is a grounder to the shortstop preferable to a fly to center? It can be a frustrating style to watch sometimes, but an out is an out, more or less.
So while RFK is likely to cut down on his homers, he won't have as large a problem as Guillen or Vinny Castilla (another right-handed batter who drove balls to center).
Later, I'll have a look at defense, and a look at the trade itself.
11 Comments:
Excellent work -- I'm not sure I'm changing my opinion on the trade overall, but it's nice to have some well-thought-out grounds for optimism.
Soriano is also an exciting player to watch, because of his speed and his power. So as a PR move this is pretty hard to beat.
By
Randolph, at 12/12/2005 12:36 PM
Any data on pull hitters who played last year in RFK? (Granted, there aren't many choices out there.)
By
Basil, at 12/12/2005 12:54 PM
I don't have any hard data, just observation (for whatever that's worth). I saw about 30 games in person this year, and a bunch more on TV, and that's the sense I have.
I think there were only two, maybe three home runs hit to the opposite field this year. Julio Franco hit one early in the season, and Jose Guillen had one towards the end.
So I can't say that pull hitters are more likely to hit home runs at RFK, I can say that spray hitters, or batters who have opposite field power, are pretty much incapable of hitting homers at RFK.
By
Chris Needham, at 12/12/2005 12:59 PM
Well, I trust your observation---and I think you've demonstrated that Jose Guillen isn't well suited to RFK. But that doesn't demonstrate that Soriano is---unless we trust your observation.
By
Basil, at 12/12/2005 1:16 PM
The point I was making is that Soriano's swing isn't like Guillen's, and that we can't make a blanket assumption that he'll struggle as much as other Guillen or Vinny did.
He's got a swing that's going to be less harmed by the park than the team's other power hitters were.
It will still depress his stats, but he won't have the 22/3 road/home homer split that Guillen had. (or whatever the numbers ended up being)
By
Chris Needham, at 12/12/2005 1:20 PM
The point I was making is that Soriano's swing isn't like Guillen's, and that we can't make a blanket assumption that he'll struggle as much as other Guillen or Vinny did
Right. You made that point well. Or at least we can't assume that Soriano will struggle in the same manner . . .
As for Castilla, you've got that one ALL WRONG. He did EXACTLY WHAT BOWDEN WANTED. Just ask Boz. ;-)
By
Basil, at 12/12/2005 1:36 PM
ed hardy clothes Highlights of the composition and color-rich design, simple lines so that ed hardy t-shirts has become a pleasure to look at, but the Ed Hardy-rich products, such as, ed hardy clothing people ed hardy sunglasses and look forward to the next ed hardy shirts changing the color of the years. ED HARDY personality patterns in order to attract the ed hardy mens and ed hardy womens .
babolat pure drive
babolat aeropro drive
wilson k factor
head tennis racquets
babolat tennis racket
By
Anonymous, at 6/21/2009 10:48 PM
Womens Handbags is one of most popular designer bags brand all over the world. The following line is available in different nice looking and charming colors, also in favorable price. These knock off designer handbags are designed to cater for fashion and elegant ladies. I very much like the cheap purses, but it is very cheap handbags. Made of high-grade leather, light weight. Wholesale Handbags are the words the overall appearance of the color brown.
ralph lauren polo
burberry polo shirt
the north face jacket
columbia jacket
spyder jacket
By
Anonymous, at 6/21/2009 10:48 PM
http://2009tennis.blogspot.com/
http://www.free-blog-site.com/tennis
http://o3.indiatimes.com/racquet/
http://cid-8c8a918b06ff68fd.spaces.live.com/?lc=2052
http://2009tennis.cocolog-nifty.com/
http://2009tennis.blog.drecom.jp/
http://2009tennis.blog.shinobi.jp/
http://pshirts.blog126.fc2.com/
http://nikepuma.blog.shinobi.jp/
http://hardy55.blog126.fc2.com/
http://cid-f80137f6d1a8020b.spaces.live.com/?lc=2052
http://www2.atword.jp/sdgdyhd/
http://kurumaro.com/hardy/
http://lalia11.blog.co.uk/
http://hardyclothes.jugem.jp/
http://www.actiblog.com/sfawagfra/
http://ameblo.jp/kaowy/
http://sale.edublogs.org/
http://www2.atword.jp/jak/
http://09handbags.blog126.fc2.com/
http://sun15.cocolog-nifty.com/
http://ameblo.jp/ailsa15/
http://junior2tennis.blog.shinobi.jp/
http://www4.atword.jp/p13/
http://www.actiblog.com/bags/
http://www.hatena.ne.jp/Daisy79/
https://kurumaro.com/store
http://shop-handbags.jugem.jp/
http://www.free-blog-site.com/pshirt
http://o3.indiatimes.com/bpure/
http://daylann.edublogs.org/
http://kfactor.easyjournal.com/
http://head-racket.blogharbor.com/
http://www.actiblog.com/bp/
http://summer-glasses.blogharbor.com/blog
http://salebag.easyjournal.com/
http://llada.edublogs.org/
http://fashine.edublogs.org/
http://www.free-blog-site.com/jake
http://andjiman.edublogs.org/
http://bp6.blog.drecom.jp/
http://edcc.blog.shinobi.jp/
http://www4.atword.jp/plshirts/
By
Anonymous, at 6/21/2009 10:50 PM
we have lots of
spyder jacket
spyder jackets
spyder jackets
spyder jacket
spyder jackets for cheap
mens spyder jackets
mens spyder jackets
spyder jackets for cheap
womens spyder jackets
spyder jackets cheap
spyder jackets cheap
womens spyder jackets
spyder jackets for men
spyder jackets for men
cheap spyder jackets
cheap spyder jackets
cheap spyder jackets
cheap spyder jackets
discount spyder jacket
discount spyder jacket
discount spyder jacket
north face jackets
north face jackets
cheap polo shirts
north face jacket
cheap north face jackets
cheap polo shirts
Columbia Jacket
Columbia Jacket
ralph lauren jacket
ralph lauren jacket
wholesale polo shirts
wholesale polo shirts
welcom to our store.
By
Anonymous, at 10/22/2009 10:49 PM
Oes Tsetnoc one of the ways in which we can learn seo besides Mengembalikan Jati Diri Bangsa. By participating in the Oes Tsetnoc or Mengembalikan Jati Diri Bangsa we can improve our seo skills. To find more information about Oest Tsetnoc please visit my Oes Tsetnoc pages. And to find more information about Mengembalikan Jati Diri Bangsa please visit my Mengembalikan Jati Diri Bangsa pages. Thank you So much.
Oes Tsetnoc | Semangat Mengembalikan Jati Diri Bangsa
By
Adi, at 11/25/2009 7:26 AM
Post a Comment
<< Home