Sunday, March 14, 2010

That's Our Boz

If the Nats can extend Dunn for three years for close to $40 million, they should do it -- and fast. His defense may improve. If it doesn't, he's still a bargain because the stat lovers have probably overshot in their zeal for quantifying. It's the way of things. They themselves may be the new inefficiency in the market. Dunn's defense should slash his price, but not slaughter it.

While I think he's right in that the statheads are looking at a bunch of slivers of part-time play, adding them, and calling Dunn "Hitler with a Glove..."

Why would the Nats sign a player to more money than they were willing to commit to him a few seasons back when there's no real indication as to whether he can actually handle the position? 3/40 isn't a ton of money, but that's a ton of money to tie up to someone who, while very good, is not elite. He's not Pujols. He's not Teixeira. He's in that second tier of pretty good, but not superstar, players. Why lock it up when 1B is so easy to fill -- as we did two seasons ago when we plucked Dunn off the unemployment line?

If Dunn goes on the FA market, I bet he'd be looking at something much closer to the deal Pat Burrell got than what Boz is suggesting.

I'm as big an Adam Dunn fanboy as there is, but as I've said ad nauseum, the time to extend him was two seasons ago, when you could've had him on a long-term deal at a very nice rate. It's better to find the next 'bargain' and stick him at 1B than to overpay to re-sign the one we've got. I think this team's track record with extending its own players should show you how difficult a process that sometimes can be.


  • I commented on his article that I think he's inventing a difference between scouts and stats that doesn't exist. You can find plenty of scouts who think he should be a DH. There's widespread agreement that he gives back a substantial portion of his offensive value in the field. John Manuel isn't a scout, but he talks to more of them every day that Boz has in probably his whole career, and he's as dismissive of Dunn as a 2-way player as any stathead I've ever read.

    Dunn has his defenders among statheads as well as scouts, as well as his detractors. To try to shoehorn the Nationals' decision on Dunn into some stats v. scouts thing is just another example of Boz picking a pre-existing narrative and arranging the facts around that.

    By Blogger Steven, at 3/14/2010 11:35 PM  

  • And if there's an expert on that...

    I think you're reading too much into his divide. I think he's reflecting the recent (ie: last 3 years) change in stathead thinking and he's basically arguing that it's gone too far. That's his point. Whether he muddles scouts into it or not isn't what's important.

    By Blogger Chris Needham, at 3/14/2010 11:37 PM  

  • Hey, CIL: cut the shit.

    By Blogger Chris Needham, at 3/15/2010 7:59 AM  

  • Huh? Chris, I haven't posted on your blog in a while. If someone else is pretending to be me, please let me know. Assuming you can see my login info through this post as the admin of the blog, feel free to send me an email at the address connected to my account.

    By Blogger CoverageisLacking, at 3/15/2010 11:11 AM  

  • Ah Kev, ya big lug ya. Quit being so coy.

    By Anonymous Fake Reiss, at 3/15/2010 11:49 AM  

  • You are right, the Nats' record on contract extensions is not good--Guzman, Nick, Kearns, Da Meat Hook, Schneider and others. At least we avoided getting stuck with Jose Guillen, even though Bodes made a generous offer to him that he foolishly rejected. Dunn will be 31 next season and I don't think he has a body that will age well.

    By Anonymous phil dunn, at 3/15/2010 11:52 AM  

  • Not sure what is going on here, but I didn't create the "Fake Reiss" account and connect it to my Blogger account. Someone else did that somehow--as you can see, it logs in through some other kind of ID, not a Blogger ID.

    If someone could let me know how to prevent someone from creating an account and linking it to my ID, I would definitely appreciate it. Thanks.

    By Blogger CoverageisLacking, at 3/15/2010 12:34 PM  

  • Looks like the real Reiss has just as much control over the Fake Reiss as the real SBF has over the fake ones, eh? Maybe you and Chris Fake Charlie Slowes could pool your forces and tell us to grow up, like the real Charlie did with you. Maybe that would work. Not.

    By Anonymous Fake Reiss, at 3/15/2010 12:58 PM  

  • Again, I'm neither the Fake Chuck nor the Fake SBF.

    By Blogger Chris Needham, at 3/15/2010 1:07 PM  

  • Then you should be suing the Fake Charlie for identity theft. But this is already such a litigious society as it is, so why not just own up to it?

    By Anonymous Fake Reiss, at 3/15/2010 1:13 PM  

  • And I'm not Kevin Reiss. Which I imagine Chris could confirm.

    By Blogger CoverageisLacking, at 3/15/2010 1:15 PM  

  • Your very blogger name doth contradict that, for truly the emperor has no clothes. Et tu, Kev?

    By Anonymous Fake Reiss, at 3/15/2010 1:35 PM  

  • Not quite sure what you are talking about, but whatever.

    If anyone can tell me how I can prevent this guy from linking to my Blogger account, please let me know. Thanks

    By Blogger CoverageisLacking, at 3/15/2010 1:44 PM  

  • If you (and everybody else) would peruse the other choices below the Blogger comment box, the one labeled "Name/URL" allows anyone including anonymous posters to enter ANY name and ANY URL into those fields to appear with the post.

    It is impossible for the blog owner to do anything about this, short of restricting posts to only his blog collaborators or to only accounts currently logged in to Blogger.

    There is good precedent for allowing anyone to post, including anons, so it is probably best to grin and bear it, lest you feed their fire.

    By Blogger Bote Man, at 3/15/2010 6:27 PM  

  • Be careful about applying the term "stat-head" to anybody who cites statistics.

    Some guys focus only on offensive stats, others misapply defensive statistics, others throw around stats without knowing what they mean.

    For myself, I just recently discovered the "defensive efficiency" stat which sounds like a very useful way to measure...well, defensive efficiency. I like it, but I wouldn't read my own statistical analysis of any given player or game. Would you?

    By Blogger Bote Man, at 3/15/2010 6:30 PM  

  • And here I was, excited to see that there were 15 comments on this post. What interesting debate there must be about the pros and cons of signing Dunn to a long term deal! But alas, it's a bunch of incomprehensible back and forth between anonymous posters and those who they are impersonating. Oh well.

    By Blogger Section 222, at 3/16/2010 4:25 PM  

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