Wednesday, November 14, 2007

One More Note On Jones

On the injuries/decline issue, I looked a little more closely at it.

He first hurt his shoulder in spring, but then hurt it worse in a game against the Nats in early April. On 4/13, he got a cortisone shot.

Prior to the shot, he had been hitting .182/ .308/ .455, hardly inspiring. After the shot (and for the remainder of the month), he upped that to .309/ .452/ .582. Some of that's just ol' regression to the mean. But it's also possible that part of it was him finally being able to swing free and easy with a barking shoulder.

On 5/27, he injured his elbow when he banged it against the wall while trying to make a leaping catch. For the month following that injured elbow, he hit .173/ .233/ .364, which is about what you'd expect someone to hit if their elbow as broken!

He played through it, stinking up the park, before releting and having a cortisone shot on 8/4. Through the end of August, he put up a typical Andruw Jones line: .262/ .323/ .452. The numbers are a bit low, but they're not THAT far off from what you could expect in an average month during the season from him.

In September, a month removed from the shot, he stunk again, hitting just .207/ .277/ .305.

Definitely seems like there's a pattern there: healthy shoulder = good Andruw; hamburger shoulder = Tony Armas batting.

I'm leaning even more heavily to the 'bad year due to injury' camp now. The question, of course, is whether it's something that's going to heal with rest or if it's something more serious. On that one, your guess is as good as mine.

  • The guys at Primer have a bit of a debate over the Marchman article I linked before. you'll have to dig through some crap to get to the actual points though.

    • posted by Chris Needham at 11:53 AM

    20 Comments:

    • Chris-
      stop doing Boras' job for him!!!
      If Satan ever sees your blog he could definitely use this post to leverage more money out of us when we DO finally sign A.Jones.

      By Blogger Rob B, at 11/14/2007 1:48 PM  

    • Ok. Jones or bust. And maybe Cameron, right?

      But Stan has said he's not keen on FAs. So I ask you to put on your leather pants for this hypothetical: if you were Bowden, what CF would you be gunning to trade for?

      Mick

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11/14/2007 1:49 PM  

    • Jones or bust!

      If we don't sign him, don't sign anyone. Play Church.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 11/14/2007 1:52 PM  

    • Stinking up the park? booo!

      July '07: .263 /.370 /.566!

      If that's stinking up the park Barry Bonds is a steaming pile of crap!

      That month goes against your whole theory about most of it being injury related. I'd also add that after the first cortisone shot he hit strongly for 2 weeks then petered out. After the second one it was two weeks AFTER the shot when he started to hit well again. Maybe the medicine didn't have the same effect?

      I think he did hurt himself in May which led to the horrible June, but the awful May and September were probably just bad months, and as he gets older he'll see more of those.

      By Blogger Harper, at 11/14/2007 3:09 PM  

    • Good catch. I should've looked a bit closer.

      As far as the timing of his hot/cold streaks after the shot, I don't think it's entirely as simple as saying get a shot, hit a homer. Especially in the second example, there's enough scouting reports out there talking about how he changed his swing to compensate for the pain, that a readjustment period makes some sense.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 11/14/2007 4:58 PM  

    • OK, we get it. You don't like Hunter or Rowand (or anyone else in the MLB).

      How about Fukodome?

      I just look at Jones and think "Albert Belle to the Orioles..."

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11/14/2007 6:48 PM  

    • Fukudome, it seems, isn't that likely to outproduce Church. He's got the same skill set: decent eye, gap power, etc.

      From the scouting reports I've seen, he's not really an MLB CFer, again like Church -- a guy who you can plug in if you have to.

      I wouldn't touch him for the price he's going to get.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 11/14/2007 6:52 PM  

    • If Ryan Church was a Free Agent this year how would he compare to this years FA crop and what kind of contract would you expect he'd command?

      I completely agree with Jones worth, the only question is if his cost will be what he "deserves" or what Boras will force on potential suitors.

      If the Nats can sign him for 5 years $90 mil it's a no-brainer YES. At 7 years $150 mil it's a no-brainer NO. In between it gets complicated, but the question I asked above really is, what is the "cost" and "worth" of keeping Church as your full time CFer for '08

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11/14/2007 8:29 PM  

    • Church is basically a league average player, maybe slightly above.

      If we use that salary chart, he'd get something like 4/$30 -- assuming teams valued him properly. Kearns and his contract is probably a pretty apt comparison.

      But because he doesn't have the track record of performance that most teams like to see, he'd probably come much more cheaply on the market.

      As far as his value to the Nats, again, he's a league-average player, and the Nats are only paying him $1.5 million or so.

      He's probably about 3 wins below Andruw Jones, but he's also going to be $15 million cheaper!

      If the Nats do get 'stuck' playing Church all year, they'll have a true bargain. But they'll need to find a place to spend that money 'saved' to upgrade the team elsewhere. Given the team's needs and the players available on the market, I'm not sure there's really a good fit. You going to give Carlos Silva a big contract? Me neither.

      Thats why signing Jones makes so much sense to me. It's a position where they could easily upgrade and with a all-star-type player. There's nobody else who could give the Nats that many extra wins at a position the Nats aren't already filling. They could use an upgrade at short, but there's nobody on the market who represents any sort of upgrade.

      I'm rambling... again... as usual.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 11/14/2007 9:01 PM  

    • How about Elijah Dukes in CF?

      http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/nats-trying-to-.html#comments

      Sounds like a really bad idea to me. More toolsy outfielders? What...a toolsy outfielder with a checkered past? Pass.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11/14/2007 10:19 PM  

    • Chris - of the 79 outfielders with over 300 plate appearances vs. RHPs in 2007, Church's OPS of .866 ranked 22d. Of those 21 ahead of him, the only CFs were Granderson, BJ Upton, Rowand, Pence, and Sizemore. I'll even let you count 1/10th of Soriano and former CF Griffey, if you'd like. Church, with a RH platoon, will give you substantially above average offense. If you believe either Kearns or (less likely) Pena could play CF, you could play your platoon in the corner. for example, Bobby Kielty is a career .882 OPS vs. LHP, and could possibly play CF (though probably not well). Kielty probably isn't ideal, but the point here is that finding a cheap RH platoon for Church is far less expensive than Jones or any other major CF option, would save money for other uses, and could leave us in a substantially better than average CF position.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11/14/2007 11:51 PM  

    • Yes, I've argued that point before.

      But he's also not an average defensive CFer, and he'd give away some of that offensive value with defense. (I know the stats say he was very good this year, but that's not his track record.)

      He'd be fine... an average CF, and that's a bargain at that price. But if you've got a team of average bats everywhere, you've got a mediocre team. This is the one position where there's a freely available upgrade.

      OK, so you save money going to Church -- where are you going to spend it?

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 11/15/2007 8:42 AM  

    • A dumb question re: Church....

      Isn't he just now coming into living up to his "potential"?

      I'm not saying I think the Nats are best served by keeping him, I was actually suprised he was back with the team this year.

      But isn't a heavy upside to him? If not on the field than in trade value?

      In general,how long does it take to go from protegy, to prospect to punt?

      By Blogger Ray Firsching, at 11/15/2007 9:15 AM  

    • The last thing the Nats need is to spend big bucks over the long term for a player with a broken down body. As I have said before, the Braves aren't remotely interested in keeping him. That speaks volumes.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11/15/2007 10:44 AM  

    • MLBTradeRumors is at it again. This time they mention Ryan Church in a discussion of Jake Peavy.

      Assuming that the Padres can't get Peavy to agree to an extension he might be on the trading block. Even with SD expressing "interest" in Ryan Church, is their any package possible to bring Peavy to Washington? I'm thinking it would take someting like' Church, Detwiler & Marrero/Willems if not more AND Peavy could opt for FA after '08 (vs '09 on his current contract) because he's a player being traded in the middle of a multi-year deal.

      Still, how many games beter would the Nats be with Guzman back for a full year, Johnson back for a full year, Willy Mo Pena for a whole year AND adding Andruw Jones in CF and Peavy leading a rotation of with Patterson, Hill, Bergmann and Redding.

      Is that a 90+ win team?

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11/15/2007 11:14 AM  

    • If you sign Jones, Church gets traded. Probably for prospects that replace--or more than replace--the draft prospects you lose by signing Jones.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11/15/2007 1:08 PM  

    • I think we only have to give up a 2nd round pick for signing a Class B Free Agent (like Jones).

      Since our 1st round pick is protected, is there essentially no difference regarding draft picks between signing Class A and Class B Free Agents?

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11/15/2007 6:06 PM  

    • They changed the rules last year.

      Type A are 1st round only (or second round if your first is protected)

      Type B -- like Jones -- are sandwich only.

      So the Nats wuldn't have to give up a pick to sign Jones.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 11/15/2007 6:07 PM  

    • We'll never get Peavey. Cordero for Pelfry has been mooted though. I like that.

      I also heard Gomez from the Mets, but you won't get him for Cordero!

      Amen to Jones or bust. He is the only one who comes in the market undervalued the rest (Hunter, Rowand, Cameron..) are massively over valued right now.

      By Blogger Unknown, at 11/15/2007 6:23 PM  

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