Wednesday, November 14, 2007

One More Note On Jones

On the injuries/decline issue, I looked a little more closely at it.

He first hurt his shoulder in spring, but then hurt it worse in a game against the Nats in early April. On 4/13, he got a cortisone shot.

Prior to the shot, he had been hitting .182/ .308/ .455, hardly inspiring. After the shot (and for the remainder of the month), he upped that to .309/ .452/ .582. Some of that's just ol' regression to the mean. But it's also possible that part of it was him finally being able to swing free and easy with a barking shoulder.

On 5/27, he injured his elbow when he banged it against the wall while trying to make a leaping catch. For the month following that injured elbow, he hit .173/ .233/ .364, which is about what you'd expect someone to hit if their elbow as broken!

He played through it, stinking up the park, before releting and having a cortisone shot on 8/4. Through the end of August, he put up a typical Andruw Jones line: .262/ .323/ .452. The numbers are a bit low, but they're not THAT far off from what you could expect in an average month during the season from him.

In September, a month removed from the shot, he stunk again, hitting just .207/ .277/ .305.

Definitely seems like there's a pattern there: healthy shoulder = good Andruw; hamburger shoulder = Tony Armas batting.

I'm leaning even more heavily to the 'bad year due to injury' camp now. The question, of course, is whether it's something that's going to heal with rest or if it's something more serious. On that one, your guess is as good as mine.

  • The guys at Primer have a bit of a debate over the Marchman article I linked before. you'll have to dig through some crap to get to the actual points though.

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