The Fanboy's Guide to 81 Wins

We've spent the last two weeks looking at what we got from the team last year with a slight nod to what we might be able to expect next year. So how do we go from there to putting a winning team on the field? Damned if I know. The team doesn't pay me enough (Stan, please stop post-dating the checks!). So here goes a fanboy's attempt to bump us up from meh to mediocre.

1) Non-tender Felipe Lopez. I like the guy a lot more than most of you since I don't buy that whole body language crap. The guy had a bad year. It happens. I think he'll rebound nicely, but I don't want to find out if he can do it for $5+ million, and I don't want to see him at shortstop -- nor do the pitchers. See if he's willing to come back for something like 3-$10 (which he won't), otherwise, let him go. We can use that money better in other places.

2) Package up Cordero and Schneider and trade them to, say, the Brewers. Milwaukee needs a closer since their Cordero is fleeing the coop and because they've complained about their previous catcher's defense. It'd be nice if they'd give up David Bush or Chris Capuano. I'm not sure that they would unless we sweetened the pot, but you gotta do what you gotta do.

They're both ~ league average starters, and both (for the most part) give you innings and starts. Bush probably has a bit of a higher upside, but he'd cost more to acquire since he's got 1 fewer year of service time. For the sake of argument, let's say we acquire Capuano. He'll probably make about the same as Cordero, freeing up $4.9 from Schneider's contract. Capuano had a loooong winless streak, but also battled shoulder problems in his non-throwing shoulder, similar to the injury Shawn Hill faced. He's a good rebound candidate.

3) Sign Andruw Jones to a 5-year Deal. I don't know what the money's going to end up looking like, but I'd probably be willing to go as high as $90 million.

Why Jones? 1. He won't cost the team a draft pick. 2. He has a MUCH better offensive track record than Rowand or Hunter:
Runs Created Ave, Last 3 years:
Jones: 100
Rowand: 82
Hunter: 80

Much of that is because of 3. He has a MUCH better injury history than Rowand or Hunter.

How many times has Hunter played 150 games? Twice. Last year and back in 2003. Rowand? Twice. Last year and back in '05. Jones? The last time he played fewer than 150 was back in '96 when he got called up late in the year. He's durable, and able to play every day.

4. He's a better defender. He might not be what he was, but that's not what the defensive stats say. He's still among the elite. Hunter is still an above-average fielder, but he's had consistent leg problems over the last 2-3 years. If his legs go, so does some of his defensive value. (Did you realize -- and this will probably be a holy crap! moment for some of you -- that Jones is YOUNGER than Hunter?)

Now it's easy to point to his lousy season and say he's not worth it. Whatever. Zimmerman had a lousy season, and we're not going to cut bait with him. The question is, did he decline, or could there have been intervening factors? I vote for the latter.

I'm really surprised this hasn't been trumpeted more -- maybe a testament to the man's manliness; he's not an excuse-making girl like someof our guys! -- but he played most of the season with a hyper-extended left elbow. Good luck swinging with that.

Take a look at his monthly splits. It flared up in May, and he was in the tank through June. He got a cortisone shot on it, rebounded, then it looks like he started feeling it again. With the Braves in contention and a contract drive ongoing, he played through it, hurting his stats.

Is it a permanent injury? Not likely. Could it explain his performance? Definitely. Just chalk his bad stats up to an injury, sign the guy, and pencil in the 30+ homers and gold glove defense he'll give you.

One more note... failing signing Jones, do NOT sign another CFer. Neither Hunter nor Rowand have the track record, and players like Coco Crisp who could be trade targets are NOT going to be a meaningful improvement over just letting Church play, especially if you find a platoon partner -- perhaps even Logan -- for him. Save that money and blow it elsewhere then.

4) Punt catcher. Schneider wasn't giving us anything offensively anyway, so throw out a bunch of 1-year, $1.5 million offers and see who you get. Rod Barajas doesn't get on base, but he slugs the occasional homer. Jason LaRue is a former Red who at least has a glimmer of offense in the not-too distant past. Jason Kendall is washed-up, but has a solid defensive rep (tho he'd probably command a bit more money). Mike Lieberthal can't play defense, and looks like toast, but he used to be able to hit.

See who the Nats scouts like, offer a deal, and see who takes it. They're the pseudo back-up, giving Flores all the starts against lefties, and 40% or so of the starts against righties. He'll probably struggle with increased exposure, but it's a learning year for him, but we want it to be a year without ALL the weight on his shoulders.

5) Find this year's Jimenez. If that's D'Angelo, great, but I'd prefer someone with a bit of a better glove, someone who could spell Guzman when he gets hurt (or when he starts to suck).

Here's the full list of minor league FA. Send the scouts loose, check your files, and see who looks passable at short. This guy seems to have a so-so bat. This guy had a rep as a defensive whiz. I'll betcha $100 that this guy ends up in camp.

6)Find an injury-prone starting pitcher. There are a few tempting injury-prone targets on the market. Send your scouts and medical staff over their charts and starts and see who they recommend: Jason Jennings, Bartolo Colon, Kris Benson, Freddy Garcia, Matt Clement. Some of those are probably more injured than others, of course. But check it out. If there's reason to believe that they can give you 25 reasonable starts next year, they're worth the money -- especially Jennings. None of these guys are likely to be dirt cheap, but you've gotta investigate one, and if Jennings, Benson or Colon would sign something like a 1-year $7 million deal with a vesting option, then consider it, if the docs say it's ok.

7) Open auditions in spring. The invite-the-world approach can work, but AS DEPTH to a starting rotation, not as THE PLAN for a rotation. Bacsik's useful if he's coming in for 7 starts in July when Patterson goes down, not when he's starting 25 games. Other names from the minor league FA list to check out: Casey Fossum, Jesse Foppert, Brandon Claussen, Matt Riley -- again, DC's scouts are better than me! See what they've got on these guys and invite 'em -- although NONE of them seem nearly as promising as the haul the Nats got last year.

Ok, so where does that leave us?
1: Guzman, SS
2: Belliard, 2B
3: Zimmerman, 3B
4: Jones, CF
5: Kearns, RF
6: Pena, LF
7: Young, 1B
8: Flores/Barajas, C

Guzman's weak up top. And that's a very right-handed lineup, but that's a pretty deep core from 3-7.

The Nats get slight improvements from 3B and RF because of rebound seasons. And they likely get HUGE upgrades at CF and LF because of previous year's ineffectiveness. Catcher and short probably tread water, as does 2B. Overall, 4 positions would be likely to improve, and it's reasonable to project a 30-40 run improvement offensively (at least) in CF.

Bench:
Church, OF
Flores/Barajas, C
Jimenez-type, IF
Johnson, 1B/PH
Batista-type, Corner IF

IF NJ and DY are both healthy, that's a solid bench with one of them providing a solid spark, along the lines of what Daryle Ward was able to do in '06. Church is more than capable as a 4th outfielder, playing all positions, providing solid defense, and a decent left-handed bat off the bench. I'd prefer a solid IF glove more than a bat, especially if they're going to carry a 3rd Batista-type bat. The IF, in that case, would mostly be used for his legs.

Pitching
Starters:
Hill
Capuano
Jennings/Colon
Bergmann
Redding
Chico
Patterson
Bacsik
Minor League FA for depth

Relievers:
Rauch, CL
Ayala, SU
Rivera, SU
Colome, MR
Albadalejo, MR
Schroder, MR

IF the starters (HUGE IF!) stay healthy, that's a solid roughly rotation. And there are options to turn to for the inevitable injuries that occur -- whether rookies like Lannan, Balester or Enrique Gonzalez or some of the veteran minor league free agents who the Nats are likely to stash at Columbus.

Rauch is likely capable of stepping in to Cordero's role without a significant dropoff. The Nats (and Bowden in particular) have always been good about assembling a bullpen on the cheap, and there will likely be plenty of depth possibilities at the back end (see: Colome and Carrasco for two examples of that).

If we assume $5 million for Capuano, $7 million for the Jennings/Colon type and $18 per for Jones, the team's payroll is right around $73-75 million. That's a bit more than the team said they'd want to spend, but this is also, if things break right, a .500+ team with a deeper offense and "better" starting pitching.

How does it look? Am I an idiot? What would you change? Anyone else you think we should target?