Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Nationals Review: Right Field

When the Nationals traded off some spare relievers for Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez, the reaction was practically universal. It was a heist. A complete steal. But at the halfway point of 2007, it seemed like Bowden's deal had more in common with Jack's trading for three magic beans than anything. Lopez was struggling. And the All-Star outfielder Bowden thought he had acquired was anything but.

I've always been a fan of Kearns. He's the kind of player that's hard to appreciate. He doesn't do anything particularly well, excelling only at some of the finer points of the game that are hard to appreciate unless you're watching him on a daily basis. He's not a slugger, but he hits for power. He's not a walking machine, yet he gets on base. He doesn't hit for average, but he's not a hacker. He's average a lot of different things, adding up to a player who's probably better than the sum of his individual parts.

Kearns played practically every day, starting 156 of the team's games. Fick (3), Langerhans (2) and Pena (1) were the only other players to start games for the Nats.

His season, it seems, could be boiled down into three distinct phases: 1) Unlucky; 2) Bad; 3) Good.

The unlucky streak came early. While not a true power hitter, he started the year hitting cleanup before the team realized what they had with Dmitri Young. After a few so-so games, he shifted down to 5th, where he stuck for most of the season (126) games. For that first month, he was getting his fair share of hits, but without really excelling.

He ended up hitting a pretty decent .283/ .360/ .455 for the month, but it's two counting stats that stick out: 2 homers, 7 RBI. Despite acceptable on-base and slugging numbers, he wasn't hitting for power the way some people thought he should, and he wasn't driving in runners. He even went 13 straight games, despite hitting 5th, where he didn't drive in a single run.

I remember this stretch, and some of the surrounding games as being one of just bad luck. Kearns was hitting the ball hard, but it wasn't finding holes. I remember looking at his line-drive rate and it was near the team lead. He just wasn't getting results as ball after ball found leather. He was doing everything right, but he wasn't getting results.

May was particularly difficult for him. He hit a woeful .225 because none of the balls he put into play went for hits. His .241 batting average on balls in play (ie: what he does when he doesn't strike out or hit the ball over the wall) was way below his career averages, and it would be the worst month of his season.

At some point during the month, though, he stopped hitting those line drives. Perhaps he adjusted his swing to 'counter' the results even though hitting liners is what every batter strives to do? For whatever reason, he went into a two-month haze, hitting grounders with increasing frequency, at least when he wasn't hitting towering flyballs in a park where towering flyballs are manna from heaven for a pitcher.

From May 1st through the All-Star Break, Kearns was a complete drain on the team's offense, hitting .235/ .306/ .330, a line not all that dissimilar to Cristian Guzman's 2005 campaign.

At the break he was hitting .250 and slugging .369 with just 5 homers, a pathetic line for a centerfielder, let a lone a corner position.

But somewhere right around then, talk began of how he had altered his swing, and he worked with hitting coach Lenny Harris to get back to where he was.

Whatever advice Lenny gave him, it worked.

Kearns had a terrific second half, leading the team in homers and walks, second in RBI and runs scored. Just as important, he led the team with a terrific .390 on-base percentage and upped his slugging to .461, right about where you'd expect it to be.

And his performance upped those terrible first-half numbers all the way up to a tolerable .266/ .355/ .411 good for a league-average OPS+.

With his early struggles, you can't say it's a fine season. But at the same time, you can't look at two bad months and ignore all the other contributions the guy gives you. He's not good enough to carry a team, but that's hardly an insult. His typical .265/ .360/ .460 line, especially when you consider the defense he plays, makes him an above average outfielder. He walks just enough. Hits for just enough power. And he helps the team win ballgames. That's about all you can ask for.


  • OFFENSE

    Because he played every day, only one other RFer in the league created more runs than Kearns. But because he didn't play especially well, he's far from the most valuable offensively. That honor belongs to Brad Hawpe of the Rockies and Corey Hart of the Brewers.

    If you look at how many runs he created compared to how many a league average right fielder would have using the same number of outs, Kearns was about 5-6 runs better than average. (Hawpe and Hart were roughly 18 above.) Kearn's total puts him roughly on par with Ken Griffey and Jeff Francouer in the league's second tier of hitters.

    Kearns has been reasonably consistent throughout his career. If we just chalk those 2.5 months up to just a fluke, we can probably tack on another 5 runs or so to his value. But, up until the last two years, he's also been very injury prone. So there's always a chance of losing him and replacing his performance with Ryan Church's -- which offensively would only be a slight dropoff, if that.

  • DEFENSE
    There might not be a better all-around defensive right fielder than Austin Kearns. He is terrific at just about everything a right fielder has to do. He has a strong arm that's pretty accurate (though he did have some accuracy problems late in the season). But what makes him such a great outfielder is his hustle. He gets a good jump and runs hard to the ball to take away doubles in the gaps and singles in front of him.

    He's also especially good at charging hits, getting into good position to make a strong throw to third, enough so that runners take the extra base on him far less than many other right fielders. They don't challenge him not so much because of his arm, but because he's on the ball quicker than many other rightfielders, some of whom play defense with a casual indifference.

    You can tell that he puts a lot of pride into his defense and that invisible sort of hustle, the kind that never shows up on the stat sheets, adds a lot of value. But, there are some cases where it does show up in the stats:

    -- Two errors all year, leading the league in Fielding Percentage
    -- First in double plays
    -- First in putouts -- by 50!
    -- First in Zone Rating
    -- Most plays made outside his defensive zone

    If you convert his zone ratings numbers into an estimate of how many runs he saved relative to an average RFer, it's a staggering number, roughly 16 runs.

    That's likely a bit high; I think RFK's spacious outfield distorts the numbers a bit -- though that's just speculation.

  • OVERALL

    It's that defensive component, the one that's so hard to see and measure accurately, that gives Austin Kearns so much value. Even if you think that the 16 runs saved is high, if you assume he's saving 10 runs relative to the average rightfielder, it closes up most of the gap in value between him and the league's top offensive right fielders.

    Hawpe, for example, is a slightly below average defender by these stats. Even if you pretend he's average, his overall value in terms of runs scored and allowed is roughly that of Kearns.

    When you factor in his range and his ability to hold runners, Austin Kearns is one of the 4 or 5 best right fielders in the league, even in a year that was somewhat off.

    He's never going to be a 40-homer slugger. He's never going to throw 25 runners out. He's never going to drive in 120 runs.

    But each little thing he does adds up, combining to make a solid, strong player.

    The Nationals are a better team because of Austin Kearns, even if you sometimes need to cock your head and squint your eyes to see it.

  • 12 Comments:

    • I hear protection is overrated, but is part of his struggles this year the people around him? I think it was lenny harris, right when he came on, who said kearns and, i think, lopez were the sort of people who are wonderful additions to a line up with a really big bat, but never going to be the center piece of a team. I guess he might have meant that in terms of Kearns having more runs to drive in, but I thought he meant Kearns would just have a much better offensive season across the board with some big bats. Maybe that is a terribly obvious point.

      By Blogger Ironic Goat, at 10/09/2007 3:12 PM  

    • I don't really think that's it.

      I just think he had two bad months, in part, because he tinkered with his swing and the batting coach -- at least for the first part of his tenure -- apparently wasn't too interested in doing much beyond being a cheerleader.

      I think (and not recalling the quote you're referring to) he means that they're not superstar-level offensive players. None are a Pujols type. They're the complimentary kind of above-average players a team needs in a deep lineup, but you're not going to win with them if they're your best player.

      By Blogger Chris Needham, at 10/09/2007 3:16 PM  

    • Now that I think of it, I dont think it was lenny. I think it was somebody who is not part of the coaching staff who helped out for a few days and took a look at what was ailing the bats.

      However, you are probably right about what he meant. Thanks.

      By Blogger Ironic Goat, at 10/09/2007 3:48 PM  

    • You thinking of Barry Larkin?

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10/09/2007 4:50 PM  

    • So an outfield of Kearns, Church, and Pena gets them to around league average? How much better would that OF be over the course of a full year when compared to this year?

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10/09/2007 9:20 PM  

    • So can Kearns and Church cover for Wily Mo's woes in left? If so, we'd have a pretty solid outfield. I'd still love to add a legit all-star bat out there, but beggars can't be choosers I guess. I'm still eager to see what Bowden decides to do with the Nick/Dmitri situation.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10/09/2007 9:49 PM  

    • I like an outfield of Wily Mo, Chruch and Kearns, but none of them seesm to be able to string a full year together, either through form or injury. The worry being that there is no cover, apart from maybe Maxwell, whose too young to have an impact (I'd love that to come back and bite me this time next year).

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10/10/2007 1:46 AM  

    • "But I think they're complementary players. . . . Neither one of them will be a featured 30-[homer], 100-[RBI] guy."-Barry Larkin

      Guess I did not remember it correctly.

      By Blogger Ironic Goat, at 10/10/2007 12:41 PM  

    • I do think protection is overrated, but a line-up is also a cumulative product. If the rest of the line-up is better Kearns will be better.

      Also, I think the new stadium will have a dramatic effect on the teams hitting. The difference will be far more than just the difference in the park. Playing in a place that punishes hitters for making good contact not only lowers hitters stats, but eventually gets in players heads and hurts performance.

      Having Guzman and Johnson back (plus playing a full season in a line-up including Willy Mo Pena and perhaps Justin Maxwell) and the emotional boost of playing in the new stadium will make Kearns a far more productive hitter.

      My guess is he's a .290/.350/.475 guy in '08 with about 30 HRs and 90-100 RBIs.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10/10/2007 4:53 PM  

    • I really enjoyed reading your summary of Austin Kearns - he is the type of guy you want on your ballteam, and if he can become mroe consistent with his hitting - and not take off for two months in the middle, he has a great capability to make opposing pitchers pay for walking the cleanup hitter. I think the play that turned the season around for him and perhaps with many of the nats was his incredible diving catch in the RF corner in St. Louis which won the game and kept the Nats hot streak alive. His hustle and effort was noticed.

      By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10/12/2007 4:40 PM  

    • Great point by Anon about that diving catch by Kearns in the right field corner. For me, that play was the Nats best defensive play of the year, even with the human highlight reel at 3rd. Zimm probably had the next 9 in the top ten of the season, but I give #1 to Kearnsie on that play.

      Chris, thanks for the hard statistics on Kearns's defense. Eye opening stuff, really. You really have to watch him frequently to see how good he is.

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