Mr. Jones And Me

Mark Zuckerman opines what we've all assumed: The Nationals are likely to be interested in Andruw Jones.

Needless to say, it's set off a flurry of reactions
--Primate: "I agree with the sentiment of the article, but I think Gainsay is right that Jones is not the guy for this team."
--Fanhausian: "I'm guessing he has the ability to bounce back from such a disappointing season. But are the Nationals willing to pay more than $17 million to find out?"
--Idiot Fan: "Yeah im sure the nats are going to fork out a 100 million dollar contract on a guy batting .230 when their entire payroll is probably half of that, and their attendance is towards the bottom of the league. Rowand might even be pushing it . Way to give the fans false hope washington post."
--Idahoan: "You would think that he'd be available more cheaply because of his off year, but most baseball insiders have said that he'll probably end up costing more than Soriano did last year. More than $17 million a year? Sheesh."
--BallParkGuyian: "Andruw would play a better Centerfield and give 30 plus HRs to the Centerfield position and you guys are complaining....LOL

"30 plus HRs from the Centerfield position probably will boost the Nats wins to the high 80's to low 90's and a playoff spot."

So what's the real story? What's he worth?

Just today, The Hardball Times went through the numbers, trying to explain how and why he's struggled, and trying to figure out what a baseline for future performance could be. There are a few things that don't pass the smell test for me on this, but it's a good start.

The explanation they give for his decline, for example, seems a bit too much for me; though I guess it's possible. It seems more likely to me that the guy's hurt. He's had elbow problems since the end of May, having hurt it while making a catch. He was terrible in June, batting .143/ .211/ .276. I don't think we have to overthink that one. April, July and August were excellent months, and he put up his typical numbers. I'm guessing it's been nagging injuries, the kind he's trying to play through to salvage a contract season. (see also: Guillen, Jose, 2006))

Although his poor season still counts, I'm working under the assumption that it's just a bad season, nothing more. For ease of evaluation, we'll focus in his runs created, which sums up each of the things he does at the plate and on the bases to estimate how many runs he's responsible for over the course of a season. (Background info here if you care).

Jones last five years or so have seen him create runs from a low of 89 in '04 to a high of 113 in '05 and '06. He's roughly on pace for 75 this year, the lowest total since his rookie year. I'll work under the assumption that he's just hurt this year, so we'll say he averages 100 runs created per year. a good year is better; a so-so year a bit worse.

Would that be an improvement for the Nats? Yep. As a team, Nats CFers have hit .252/ .320/ .373. If you use the quick and dirty RC estimate (obp x slg x ab), the Nats have created about 60-65 runs on offense. (Only two NL teams have worse CF production).

If we make a fudge adjustment to account for park differences, Jones is 30 or so runs better than the Nats CFers have been, in an average Jones year. Even in a down year, he has created more runs (69) than every Nats CFer so far.

Then there's defense. Some will tell you that Jones is the best thing ever. I think that was true 5 years ago. Now, it's not. He's still a good one, but there are lots of good ones, and he's much closer to average than he is to being the best. Defensive metrics range on him, but from the ones I've looked at today, they range from calling him average to saying he's 20 runs better (near the best in the league) than the average CFer. If you split the difference, he's probably 10 runs better or so, still a solid one. Just not a gold glover every single year like he was.

Of course, for the Nats, they've got some pretty good defense in center. Logan's had his issues on routine balls. And Church was maligned, but the defensive statistics loved him. I'm not really sure that Jones would be much of an improvement over Logan/Church. But, again, for the sake of argument, we'll say they're average, and say he's 10 runs better.

Add offense and defense, and a typical AJ season is probably 40 runs better -- or 4 wins -- than the production the Nats have gotten out of CF this year. That 4-win guesstimate is very close to the baseline the Hardball Times article does. Unfortunately, they were comparing to replacement level, indicating that the Nats CFers are crap. (newsflash!)

What's instructive about that is that even for a great player like Jones, it's hard for one player to make that much of a difference. 4 wins is 4 wins. But 4 wins ain't winning us the World Series next year.

Is he worth it? It depends on what 'it' is. Given his struggles this year, I wonder of Boras would have him sign one of the Jeff Weaver specials: a one-year, make-good contract? If so, would the Nats be interested? (I'd pass in that case, given the likelihood of the Braves offering arbitration and the Nats having to fork over a 2nd round pick to the Bravos).

But I can't really say at this point. A lot is going to depend on what Boras feels his market value is. I would suspect that the evil minions of the Scott Boras Corporation are preparing their binders as we speak, writing off -- as I have done -- this is just a tiny blip in what's been otherwise a terrific career. If so, the pricetag is going to climb, especially depending on who the other suitors are. At least for the past few years, what we've imagined as reasonable contracts at this point (remember 5/$75 for Soriano?) rarely are reality come January. I suspect that this will be the same for June. And for that reason, I'd be surprised if he were wearing the Curly W come next April.

(If I were in charge, I'd suck it up and deal with a Church/Logan platoon in CF and find a bat like Dunn for left, then trade for a pitcher (Burnett? or one of those other high-dollar ones that Kasten claims teams are clamoring to get rid of), because our pitching isn't nearly as good as most are making it out to be.)

But there's still three weeks left. We'll worry about all that later.