Why Soriano Must Go

About 30 hours to go before the trade deadline, and the Soriano rumors continue to fly fast and furiously. Sure, we love Soriano, and his hitting carried the offense back when Clayton, Guillen, Schneider, and Vidro were stinking up the park.

But when it all comes down to it, he's gotta go. Here's why.

1) Free Agency. I cannot emphasize this enough. At the end of the year, he has a right to choose who he wants to play for next year. The Nationals will be competing against 29 other teams in an auction. Unless the Nats are willing to outbid every other team (and even then there's no guarantee), Soriano's not coming back next year. In short, keeping him through the deadline does NOT guarantee (or even increase, really) our chances of keeping him.

2) No Extension. Sure, the team's talking about it, but if you read Ladson's latest version of the front office spin, there's a stunning lack of actual action there. Read it closely. The only thing they're doing is having Jose Rijo talk to Soriano. Big Whoop. Sure, his agent follows the player's wishes, but there's no chance they get a contract done between now and Monday, especially since (and this is the rub!), no one appears to be talking to his agent!

This, combined with Kasten's loud public pronouncement that No-trade clauses are worse than Hitler (in reaction to Soriano's request for stability), seem to be starting the groundwork for a campaign to lessen the effects of Soriano leaving. Since fans are in an uproar over keeping him, if they're able to paint him as greedy, or wanting things (no-trades) that even the great Atlanta Braves didn't give, then they can lessen the fan reaction to losing Soriano -- "See! We tried. He just was unwilling to compromise." Think back to last year, and how statements (starting in August, but culminating in a November Ladson piece) indicated that Wilkerson was going to be a goner.

3) The future. If those two signs are pointing to Soriano not sticking around next year (or at least the chances of him staying being very slim), what's next? By any account, there are a bazillion and one teams interested in him. If the Nats can get a top prospect or two (Kendrick, Hughes, Maybin, etc), they absolutely have to deal him. Think of it this way, for two months of Soriano, the Nationals have a chance to acquire six years of a player.

Sure, some'll point to other can't-miss prospects who did, but that's why the Nats need to demand near-MLB-ready prospects. Someone slugging in A-ball could hit a roadblock in double-A. But if they're hitting in triple-A, and they hit in double-A, they've already been tested. If they're already dominating Triple-A (check out Kendrick's stats), they are highly likely going to be a pretty good major leauge player.

If the Nats get one elite prospect and two lessers, that's up to 18 years of players for 2 months of Soriano. Reread that sentence. Eighteen years. All for a player who has no guarantee to re-sign.

4) Payroll. Assume that the Nats hold on to him next year. We're looking at a contract with a minimum of 4/$48 million. On an open market, it's much likely to be higher than that, but let's play conservative. Nick Johnson gets a $2.3MM raise. Brian Schneider bumps up $800K. Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez are arbitration eligible and are likely to make $4-5 million more combined. Even woeful Jose Vidro's going to be making half a mil more.

That's a lot of extra money tied up into the same players. Unless the team is going to bump up the payroll by $25-30 million, there might not be room for Soriano's salary. And given all the noise about building for the long-term, what would you place the odds of a $25-million payroll increase?

Well, I suppose there'd be room for Soriano's salary if you don't want any pitching upgrades.

Everything points to the team needing to trade him, but... there are some reasons to keep him.

If the Nats aren't getting those major-league-ready prospects, keeping Soriano might not be a bad thing.

At the end of the season, the Nats can and will offer him arbitration. Then, one of two things happens. If he accepts, he stays with the Nats on a one-year deal. If he declines, which is much more likely, he's still free to negotiate with the team, but if he signs with another team, we'll get their first-round draft pick AND an additional first-round pick in the sandwich round before the second round begins.

If Bowden is getting offers for B-level prospects stuck in double-A, then maybe holding on to Soriano and taking those two first-rounders will be a better option. That, from a PR aspect, might work, too. If Soriano walks because someone offers him 6/$90 million, then it's much more palatable to the average Nats fan, especially if some of that money that the Nats had budgeted is plowed into the starting rotation.

So what's gonna happen? I dunno. Google keeps us abreast of the latest rumors.

If I were a betting man, I'd say that Soriano sticks around. I don't think that the Nats are going to get a Kendrick or a Hughes, and holding on to Soriano for the picks (not to mention good will) might be more beneficial to the team.

All signs point to a trade making sense, but two months of production and two draft picks has tangible value. If other teams aren't willing to meet that price, well... screw 'em!