Pick Those Nits

Boswell writes (!!!) about the Nats today, using the signing of Paul Lo Duca to produce his latest hagiography. It's fine, and at least has an interesting perspective from Tom Glavine. (But as many in town can tell you, anecdote does not make good public policy.)

This is going to sound like just a nitpick, but it's something that stuck out of me, more in a huh? kinda way, so I wanted to check it out a bit. When discussing what he claims are overblown defensive differences between Schneider and Lo Duca he brings up this stat:

In the last two seasons, both men threw out 49 runners, but opponents had 156 steals against Lo Duca to 111 against Schneider. So the Nats will probably allow about 22 more steals this year.

That's easy to check.

Schneider 07, 53-24 SB-CS
Schneider 06, 58-25 SB-CS
Total: 111-49

Lo Duca 07, 72-22
Lo Duca 06, 84-27
Total: 156-49

So he's right. It's just an average of 20 more steals a year... 20 extra bases, perhaps (at the very most, likely much less) another 10 runs over the course of a season... in other words, not a ton.

But I got thinking about it a little more. The catcher isn't the only deterrent to the running game. The pitcher plays a significant role, too. (Remember how runners used to run at will on John Patterson?) How are the Mets pitchers? Do they give more or less opportunity than the Nats' pitchers?

Well, I can't really answer that one. I ain't smart enough or facile enough with the ol' computers. (Frank Robinson taught me everything I know). But I do see Tom Glavine at the front of the Nats' list, and my impression is that he's been very tough to run on in his career. So a quick look at the numbers...

Glavine, 06: 6-9 SB/CS
Glavine, 07: 5-8 SB/CS

So Glavine completely shut down the running game, even with Lo Duca behind the plate. Does Lo Duca deserve credit for that? Perhaps. Likely not, though. If you replace the 400 IP he had over those two years with someone who didn't hold runners as well, how many more SB would Lo Duca have allowed? Another 10? 20?

Here's a list of all Mets pitchers over the last 2 years with their SB/CS totals. Glavine was excellent and Trachsel was decent at holding runners. Everyone else pretty much stunk. So is it their lack of ability at holding runners or the lack of ability to the catcher? When the team "average" is so terrible, I'd lean towards the latter.

For comparison's sake, here's the Nats list. You can see it's very top heavy with pitchers who couldn't hold runners -- O'Connor, Patterson, Livan and Rauch. O'Connor never paid attention. Patterson and Rauch have high leg kicks / big motions. And Livan just didn't care. It's safe to say that they're as weak at holding runners as Glavine is strong.

But if you look at every other pitcher on that list, you notice very few attempts. And you notice lots of eight-for-sixes... numbers along those lines. The "average" Nats pitcher did a lot better than the Mets' "average" pitcher.

The roundabout point that I'm unskillfully making (and really just throwing out there because I don't know if it's entirely true... just one of those hunches) is that Lo Duca's SB numbers are held down by the skill of one of his key SP getting 400 IP over the last two years and that Brian Schneider's SB numbers look worse than they are because he had over 400 IP from pitchers who don't really care about holding runners.

In other words, had Lo Duca been on this team, the Nats would've allowed FAR more SB -- beyond the 20 that Boswell is claiming -- and that had Schneider been on the Mets, they would have done significantly better there, too, likely much more than those 20 stolen bases. Lo Duca makes the average Pitcher look worse in that category; Schneider makes them look much better.

Now that's not to say that they shouldn't have signed him. Given most of the alternatives, he's among the least objectionable (take a look at Estrada's SB numbers some time!), and SB really are overrated. And there's always a chance, especially with a player whose offensive value is completely tied up in batting average, that they'll have a hot streak/month and be truly valuable. Remember, at WORST, he's a few runs better than Schneider with the bat, and with the potential to be much better. The defense takes a slight step back in terms of SB, but if Tom Glavine is to be believed, his ability to work with pitchers isn't going to be much of a dropdown from Schneider.