What Do 50 At Bats Mean?
The team is going to defend Ryan Church's demotion by pointing to his .200 batting average in spring training. Just for the hell of it, let's look at the 2005 season, and see what 50 AB samples get us.
I'm using Baseball Musing's wonderful day-by-day database, which uses Retrosheet's information to extract all the wholesome goodness therein.
I'm pulling these dates out completely randomly, so bear with me:
9/12 - 10/02
Brad Wilkerson: .222
Ryan Zimmerman: .419
Jose Guillen: .125
Ryan Church: .200
Brandon Watson: .083
4/14 - 5/2
Cristian Guzman: .310
Brian Schneider: .222
Ryan Church: .188
6/12 - 6/31
Jose Guillen: .350
Brad Wilkerson: .236
Vinny Castilla: .196
Wil Cordero: .083
The point I'm trying to make -- and I'm not sure that just throwing numbers up there makes it -- is that 50 or so ABs is pretty meaningless. Even good hitters can have bad stretches like Jose Guillen and Brian Schneider did above.
Maybe there's something scouting-wise that we're not seeing, but no one has reported it.
All we have to go on is that the team made a decision mostly based on the performance of one batter over another in 50 spring at bats. This, despite, over 2,000 professional At Bats by each player which indicate a clear superiority.
Fifty at bats, in the scheme of things, is pretty meaningless. Is the team really basing its decisions on that?
I'm using Baseball Musing's wonderful day-by-day database, which uses Retrosheet's information to extract all the wholesome goodness therein.
I'm pulling these dates out completely randomly, so bear with me:
9/12 - 10/02
Brad Wilkerson: .222
Ryan Zimmerman: .419
Jose Guillen: .125
Ryan Church: .200
Brandon Watson: .083
4/14 - 5/2
Cristian Guzman: .310
Brian Schneider: .222
Ryan Church: .188
6/12 - 6/31
Jose Guillen: .350
Brad Wilkerson: .236
Vinny Castilla: .196
Wil Cordero: .083
The point I'm trying to make -- and I'm not sure that just throwing numbers up there makes it -- is that 50 or so ABs is pretty meaningless. Even good hitters can have bad stretches like Jose Guillen and Brian Schneider did above.
Maybe there's something scouting-wise that we're not seeing, but no one has reported it.
All we have to go on is that the team made a decision mostly based on the performance of one batter over another in 50 spring at bats. This, despite, over 2,000 professional At Bats by each player which indicate a clear superiority.
Fifty at bats, in the scheme of things, is pretty meaningless. Is the team really basing its decisions on that?
posted by Chris Needham at
10:36 PM
10 Comments:
Also, keep this in mind: the Marlins are hitting awesome this spring training in 50 ABs, but guys like Uggla, Abercrombie, and Wes Helms aren't as good of hitters if you look at the major/minor league stats.
By
King, at 3/28/2006 10:57 PM
Oh and don't get me wrong... I think Spring Training can tell a lot of a player, but you gotta look at histories, too.
Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres made Ian Kinsler and Josh Barfield their new starting 2B basemen today. Both had great springs and have no major league experience, but they won it because of their competition, too: Mark DeRosa and Mark Bellhorn haven't been good in forever and they were the only ones competiting for the job besides them. Ryan Church ain't no Mark DeRosa.
By
King, at 3/28/2006 11:00 PM
Those were a different kind of competition though -- more in line with the Clayton/Guzman battle.
Both teams (the Rangers especially) were going to go with the rookie. They brought in the vet not to compete for the job per se, but to be there in case the rookie crapped all over himself.
By
Chris Needham, at 3/28/2006 11:03 PM
Then that's basically like our competitions (not real competitions):
1. Frank says there will be a competition for a rotation spot between oh... Ramon Ortiz and Billy Traber
2. Ortiz starts Game 1 of this competition allowing 38 ER on 27 H and 20 BB in 0.1 IP in a 42-3 loss to the Florida Marlins.
3. Traber starts Game 2 of this competition allowing no runs on no hits and no walks while striking out all 27 batters faced in a complete game shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals.
4. Bowden walks up to Traber going "WOW just WOW!" and just as they are about to shake hands, Bowden walks right past Traber and to Ramon Ortiz saying "WOW! It's veteran Reds like you that make a baseball team great. How would you like the 3rd spot in the rotation?"
5. Robinson declares the competition over and Traber is sent to minor league camp because of his problems with GM Jiim Bowden (mainly the problem about being a former Indian instead of a Red).
By
King, at 3/28/2006 11:13 PM
That's it. You can end the madness right here. Start up a collection among your readers to purchase the DC front office a copy of Baseball Prospectus 2006. Every little bit counts. If we all chip in, imagine what kind of change we can bring.
By
Angry Sam, at 3/28/2006 11:21 PM
BP? No thanks.
By
Yuda, at 3/28/2006 11:24 PM
BP's pretty good this year. Expect my review Wednesday night.
By
Basil, at 3/29/2006 12:27 AM
Not a good day to be Barry either (though w/your book out, you probably can take the hit). Yesterday's "Watson not likely to stick" headline coupled with today's huge spread on the team featuring RC leading off and playing center may not be Dewey beats Truman, but still . ..
Question: If I get mlb extra innings on comcast, will the Nationals' away games be carried, or will those be blacked out too b/c there is (in theory) a dedicated local network for the team? Unsurprisingly, the person who answered the phone at comcast didn't know.
And yes I know I should switch to satellite, but it's just not going to happen this year.
By
Sam, at 3/29/2006 9:39 AM
All Nats games would be blacked out, unfortunately.
By
Chris Needham, at 3/29/2006 9:50 AM
Spring Training should only be used as a deal breaker between two similar players with similar sitations. If the question was do we keep Watson or Godwin, or if we keep Saul Rivera or Steve Watkins, you can use Spring Training stats.
By
El Gran Color Naranja, at 3/29/2006 9:54 AM
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