Sunday, February 20, 2005

FUPECOTA

While I'll let others debate the merits of the PECOTA projection system, I'll just point out that in a recent chat, its creator gave out the standings that would result from the projections.

dantroy (davis, ca): Nate, How do you see the NL East shaking out?

Nate Silver: I think the NL East will be the stongest division in baseball, except possibly for the AL West.

We'll have the PECOTA-based team win totals up on the site soon, but I'm *guessing* they're going to look roughly as follows

Braves 90-72
Phillies 89-73
Marlins 88-74
Mets 84-78
Nats 70-92

That could make for one hell of a pennant race. The Phillies in particular seem to be underrated in some circles. I like things like the Jon Lieber signing, and they have a lot of guys that can be expected to improve upon their performance of a year ago.


I'll be debuting my own projection system soon. I think It'll be CRAP, Chris's Random-Ass Projections, ala Marcel the Monkey. (Actually, Marcel's pretty useful. If you have no idea what the hell I'm talking about. And I'm guessing that's mostly in the sane portion of my readership, then click the link.)