Monday, December 17, 2007

Dream A Little Dream

It's almost Christmas time. We can dream a little bit. Let's, for the sake of argument, play with some numbers, and my favorite little toy, the quick-and-dirty Runs Created estimate... (AB * OBP * SLG)

Last year's Nats C had 560 ABs.
Let's give Lo Duca the bulk of the playing time, .310/ .380 (OBP/SLG), and Flores backs up (.300/ .380). That's about 65 runs.

Last year's 1B had 627 ABs.
Dmitri plays most of the year, .350/ .480. NJ comes back for a chunk, .370/ .450. Boone spots some starts, .300/ .350. That's about 100 runs.

Last year's 2B had 663 ABs.
Belliard (.330/ .425) and Lopez (.330/ .380) split the time. That's about 88 runs.

Last year's 3B had 655 ABs.
Zimmerman (.350/ .510) loves the new park and plays almost every day, with Boone or Mackowiak getting the occasional start. That's about 110 runs.

Last year's SS had 654 ABs.
Guzman plays a good chunk, hitting .300/ .350. Lopez fills out the rest. That's about 70 runs.

Last year's LFers had 613 ABs.
Pena (.330/ .510), Dukes (.360/ .480), Milledge (.350/ .475) and Mackowiak (.300/ .350) find some way to split the ABs. That's about 95 runs.

Last year's CFers had 597 ABs.
Dukes plays the majority of the time. Milledge gets his share of starts. That's about 100 runs.

Last year's RFers had 604 ABs.
It's still Kearns' job (.360/ .480) (I'm a fanboy, and I think he's going to love the new park!) though Milledge and Pena see quite a bit of time. That's about 100 runs.

Let's see... 65 + 100 + 88 ummm... That's about 730 runs. Throw in a handful for other players/pitchers, etc... and we can make a decent argument for 740-750 runs next year, up from the 673 they scored last year. That would put them right about middle of the pack in runs scored, way up from their worst-in-the-league showing last season.

Just for sake of argument, let's say that the pitching holds steady -- More innings from Shawn Hill and a breakout from someone injury-prone like Patterson or, say, Mark Prior, offsets any increase in runs allowed from moving out of RFK (Just go with me, dammit!)

740 runs scored with 783 runs allowed gives us... about 77 wins. With a little bit of luck, they're .500. And if one of those bats breaks out, they could do even better. We'll see what happens. At least we won't have to deal with that 'historically bad' crap again next season.


  • I wish the FO would make a play for Prior. If nothing else, it would give us a new perennially-injured though very talented pitcher upon whom to place our ire.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12/17/2007 2:21 PM  

  • For a good laugh, check out the dream scenario concocted at the USS Mariner, where we would trade Nick Johnson and Ronnie Belliard for Jose Vidro and Jose Lopez.

    Who knew that Nicky had any trade value? But sending back Vidro? No way, Jose. (Not to mention that JoLop-y seems to me to be a younger version of FLop. But perhaps you could enlighten us with a statistical comparison???)

    Thoughts on what we could get for Nick Johnson?

    By Blogger OleShu, at 12/17/2007 2:32 PM  

  • Let's not forget about the D-Backs run to the NLCS last year. 712 runs for and 732 runs against for a 90 win season and the NL West division title. Those numbers right there should give us hope to dream.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12/17/2007 2:36 PM  

  • Yes, because counting on something that's only happened 2 or 3 times in baseball history is a good way of going about planning for the following year! :P

    By Blogger Chris Needham, at 12/17/2007 2:37 PM  

  • I like Svrluga's idea that we might move for Khalil Greene. You enjoy a good fantasy as much as the next man but he is loopy! What would we give the Padres for him? Lopez? Our outfield?

    Natsin08: The D'Backs staff was led by Brandon Webb. Our pitcher with the most wins? Chico won the most for us. Jason Simontacchi was tied for third. Gulp.

    By Blogger Unknown, at 12/17/2007 2:52 PM  

  • the guy on USS Mariner is high. first off, Nick Johnson is done. mark my words: he won't play another game in the major leagues. the sooner we get over it, the sooner we can all move on. he broke his leg IN HALF. he's had HIP SURGERY since. look, i LOVE the guy, but he cannot do "baseball exersizes", which means he's lost all lateral movement, which is only useful in things like, oh i don't know, hitting and fielding.

    second, did you see some of the other moves the USS Mariner guy proposed? it's like the guy on Svrulga's blog today that wants to trade Dukes and a pile of ___ for Bedard AND Roberts!

    sorry, i'm in a bad mood and unfounded trade speculation sets me off even more.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12/17/2007 3:46 PM  

  • Big Fish

    Johnson (and Patterson for that matter) is being kept around because it costs us nothing to try him out for another season. Given his (and Pattersons) upside he is worth the risk, although I can't imagine anyone in the organisation honestly expects him (or Patterson) to come back. Why do you think we signed Dimitri for 'just long enough to see if Marrero makes it'.

    As to the silly trade ideas, no one takes these seriously. Least of all the GM's. Don't pop a vein mate.

    By Blogger Unknown, at 12/17/2007 4:08 PM  

  • Chris,
    I think you are a little too optimistic as far as our starting pitching. Hill is solid, but beyond him I don't see much of a rotation. The other young guys have shown some decent potential, but not on a consistent basis. Also don't forget that their performance could possibly decline with more starts, as teams develop better scouting reports on them. (none of those guys are over-powering)
    Sorry to be pessimistic, but if you add in the smaller park factor, I think our current rotation gets shelled.

    By Blogger Rob B, at 12/17/2007 5:40 PM  

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