Saturday, June 17, 2006

Great Moments In Prognostication, VOL I

12/7/05, Baseball Primer's Transaction Oracle:
Alfonso Soriano: .248 .295 .439, 27 homers.
"Wow, this is an awful trade for the Nats."

From the peanut gallery:
"if Sledge realizes that projection in something close to a full season, then the Nats will have acquired Soriano for two players who are each better than him."

"Why the #### would the Nationals ever do something like this? God that's mind boggling."

"Wow! Is Soriano going to be look terrible at RFK?"

"I was just looking at Soriano's HR/FB ratio of 0.13, which was very middle of the pack, and half that of the league leaders like Manny, Hafner, Andruw, etc.

Based on that, I suspect that even the homerun projection here might be too high, considering he is going to a park where flyballs go to die, and will be playing another 27 road games or so in places like Florida, NY, and Atlanta.

I think it's very possible the avg and on base projections are correct, but I think the homer totals and the slg % could be even worse than the projections here."

And the Grand Prize Winner:

"It adds up to about 18 homers, I think."


  • I'm going to be contrarian and say that it's still an open question whether it was a good trade or not. The key element that has to be taken into account is that Wilkerson would still be Nationals' property in 2007. Unless the Nats get someone really really good for Soriano when he's traded, I'm going to remain convinced that it was a bad trade simply because the team will have neither Wilkerson or Soriano next year.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6/17/2006 9:45 PM  

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